Trump, institutions, lunar cycles — any explanation can be sought, but one thing is clear – this cycle is different from the previous ones.
If someone doesn’t notice this, they are either not very observant or find it hard to adapt. But there is an opinion that making predictions based on 'it was like this in the past cycle' can lead to a big surprise – that’s the first point. And secondly, I want to ask a clarifying question: how many previous cycles has crypto had? 5? 10? Or maybe just two? And how sufficient is that for gathering statistics? And especially to claim that it works 'like this'?
A car can run for 10 years, and one morning it might not start, and then it’s up to you to decide what to do: try to assess the situation and understand what to do about it or sit and wait for the car to start, it has started for 10 years.
The choice is yours.
Transitioning from metaphors to facts:
The chart of others looks extremely terrible + the dominance of $BTC has been in a steady uptrend since November 2022 (!) and shows no signs of reversal. Everything that is happening are local pullbacks, as it was in December 2024. These are the facts. What people draw on the charts, as I said before — everyone has the right to choose their own way of expression 🙂
The fact is — all metrics indicate that there is no demand for altcoins. The market needs liquidity to grow, and triggers are needed for liquidity inflow, but so far there are none.
Triggers could be:
- rate reduction — so far, it is not anticipated. Trump, of course, regularly criticizes Powell on Truth Social, calling him 'slow' and citing Europe, where rates have already been lowered 9 times, but this doesn’t affect anything. The Fed acts independently, and they are not obligated to consider the wishes of the sitting president. Powell certainly won't)
- new ETFs / staking. Again, there are applications and everything seems to be on a low start, but the SEC keeps postponing their consideration, so movements in this direction are also not to be expected in the near future.
- agreements on tariffs / mitigations / deferrals, etc. — there is a likelihood of such movements, but there is also a chance that tomorrow Trump will wake up and impose tariffs on China, penguins, and Martians.
And it should be noted that all these statements are volatile and more resemble manipulations – today he announces tariffs, tomorrow he postpones them, the result is pump and dump, as it was with the announcement of the crypto reserve in March. It looks more like a way to 'feed' insiders with quick money.
This may seem like a theory and a conspiracy to some, but I want to draw your attention to the fact that due to some 'amazing' coincidence, such statements constantly occur on 'thin' market days: on Friday evenings, on Sundays. That is, on those days and times when it is easiest to move the price in the desired direction.
In general, it feels like there is a desire to boost the market for everyone at once: with new ETFs, and rate cuts, and then some news will pull through — in any case, it seems like all this is being held until the moment when the guys will finally need to unload, and that could easily be this November/December. Maybe that’s when the Santa Rally everyone has been waiting for in 2024 will happen.
Such a scenario fits very well with the traditional summer sideways: altcoins will likely drop even more (many of them are already trading at their spring lows) and will hang in a flat until the day X, which will come when the hopes of the average person are finally extinguished 🙂
