Our brain is still a troll! 😜 Due to the availability heuristic, we judge the probability of events not by facts, but by what is vividly stuck in our heads. Saw the news about a plane crash? Flying is scary! But you get in a car, although the chance of getting into a car accident is 1000 times higher (0.01% vs 10% per year in the USA). Why? Because plane crashes are loud, emotional, and car accidents are boring daily statistics. #BrainTrolls
How does it work in crypto? 📉For the last three years, alts have collapsed to new lows after each rise. Logic screams: “Sooner or later, the rise will be real!” But the brain only remembers recent failures, and you sell $ETH at $2,500, because “well, another collapse.” And on the highs ($BTC at $100k)? Everyone remembers “reboundless growth”, buys up every drawdown and… catches a knife up to $50k. 😅 #CryptoPest
Why is that? 🦁This is an ancient brain bug. Imagine: a caveman saw a lion jump out of the bushes and bite his friend. The brain remembered: bushes = death. This saved lives when the info was relevant. But today we are bombarded with thousands of news, tweets and throws. I read 10 posts about the “$BTC dump” - panic! Although your portfolio is normal. Or you are afraid of the alt season, because $BTC.D has been growing for three years (62.15% as of 04.06.2025), but history shows: alt seasons often start after a panic at the stake. #InfoNoise
My opinion 😎The availability heuristic is like a market maker manipulating your emotions. Whales love it when you buy at the highs and sell at the lows, because that's their liquidity. 😈 Have you read the predictions about "$BTC to $200k" or "alts in the trash"? This is noise to make you act on emotions. Filter the info, look at the numbers: $BTC is now $97,432, $ETH — $2631, $SOL — $182. Alt season can start if $BTC.D drops to 55%. #ThinkCold
Forecast 🔮
• Short-term: If $BTC.D (62.15%) falls to 55% in Q3 2025, alts ($ETH, $SOL) could rally 30–50%. Entry point: $ETH ~$2500, $SOL ~$170, take profit at $3500 and $250.
• Risks: Panic over “dump” rumors could force a sell-off. If $BTC falls to $80k, alts will drop 20–30%, but this is an entry opportunity.
• Long term: Alt season in 2026 if $BTC.D reaches 40–42%. $ETH to $6000, $SOL to $400. But be prepared for news manipulation before the peak.
Conclusion 💡The availability heuristic is your enemy in the market. Don't be led by loud headlines and emotional tweets. Check the facts, keep a cool head and don't be liquidity for whales. Catch the alt season, but don't forget: after euphoria there is always a correction. 😎#CryptoPsychology#Trading #Don'tBeLeaded