If you’ve traded through 2017 or 2021, you already know this:

Altseasons don’t begin with Bitcoin.

They start with $ETH flipping the switch.

And that switch?

It’s $ETH/$BTC breaking above structural resistance.

In this cycle, that’s the 0.038 level.

Right now, ETH/BTC is forming a clean cup-and-handle + bull flag, pointing to a 30–55% move if confirmed.

That’s not just technical alpha, it’s a macro trigger.

● Why ETH/BTC Matters More Than BTC Dominance

ETH/BTC is the cleanest expression of “risk-on” within crypto. When $ETH gains on $BTC, it signals that investors are:

→ Moving down the risk curve,

→ Positioning for growth,

→ Seeking higher beta.

It’s not just a signal, it’s a liquidity unlock.

When $ETH starts outperforming, the market doesn’t just rotate into $ETH. It expands:

→ L2 tokens rally.

→ $ETH-native yield protocols regain attention.

→ Modular infrastructure plays get re-rated.

→ Real-world assets and Perps catch a bid.

● How the Rotation Could Play Out

Here’s a data-backed look at where capital may rotate once $ETH breaks out:

Rotation Tier 1: ETH-Native Infra

+ $PENDLE — Yield narratives lead every $ETH breakout

+ $RENZO, $PUFFER — LRTs are $ETH-beta with leverage

+ $EIGEN — The restaking index trade

Rotation Tier 2: L2 Capital Expansion

+ $ARB, $OP, $MNT — High-liquidity L2s with strong builder momentum

— Rotation Tier 3: $ETH DeFi Flywheel

+ $HYPE, $GMX, $DYDX — Revived perp narratives

+ $ENA, $ONDO — Yield-on-chain + RWA liquidity inflow

✍️ Conclusion

This isn’t about chasing low caps early.

It’s about tracking ETH/BTC like a hawk. If 0.038 breaks, that’s your cue.

“Altseason doesn’t start when your bags pump.

It starts when $ETH reclaims dominance.”