The U.S. debt crisis is approaching, Wall Street sounds the alarm!
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio both issue warnings: the U.S. debt market is on the brink of collapse, and yields could soar above 5%. The direct trigger is Trump's tax cut policy—over the next decade, it will create a nearly $3 trillion fiscal hole. If the U.S. relies on crazy borrowing to fill the gap, the scale of U.S. debt will surge by 10%, leading to increased market sell-off pressure. The historical pattern is: when U.S. debt collapses, the cryptocurrency market will inevitably follow.
The “Death June” curse of Bitcoin reappears
Seasonal bearishness: June has always been a slow season for the crypto market, often experiencing corrections even in bull markets.
Increased sell pressure: The Mt. Gox compensation is starting + the German government transferring 4,000 BTC to exchanges, resulting in a surge in short-term sell pressure.
Whale movements: The mysterious entity Spoofy has yet to bottom out after liquidating their positions, suggesting the current price level has not hit the bottom, with targets potentially in the $80,000-$90,000 range.
Ethereum breaks through against the trend, but hidden dangers remain
ETH has performed well recently, mainly due to the influx of Asian capital and expectations for an Ethereum ETF in the U.S. However, caution is advised: if Bitcoin continues to decline, ETH will struggle to stand alone, and the $2,750-$2,850 level is a strong resistance area that requires stronger momentum to break.
This week, two major economic data will determine fate
Non-Farm Payroll Report: Expected new jobs are projected to plummet from 177,000 to 130,000; if actual numbers are worse, it could trigger market panic.
CPI Inflation Data: Forecast to soar from 2.3% to 2.6%; if true, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may be delayed, putting pressure on risk assets.
My operational strategy: wait for a deep drop to buy spot
Bitcoin: $80,000-$90,000 is a strong support area; if it falls to this level, I will accumulate in batches.
Ethereum/Altcoins: If ETH drops below $2,300, it can be entered; meme coins like PEPE need to wait for market sentiment to warm up.
Hedging risks: Avoid high-leverage contracts in the short term! Use a combination of spot and options to hedge against black swan events.
Final reminder: Don't panic at the “$10 billion short”. Dalio himself admits that “shorting Bitcoin may result in losing explosively first.” The more panic in the market, the more one should focus on value targets; falling deeply is an opportunity.
Follow me to see through phenomena and grasp the essence, let’s traverse bull and bear markets together.
Focus today: SOPH ETH MASK BTC
