On a macro level, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is as high as 98.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 1.2%. By July, the probability of maintaining rates drops to 74.3%, with a 25 basis point cut probability at 25.4% and a 50 basis point cut probability at just 0.3%. Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that based on economic performance, there may be one rate cut this year.
At the legislative level, the California House of Representatives passed a bill with an overwhelming result of 68 votes in favor and 0 against, allowing California to accept Bitcoin and other digital currencies as a form of payment. The bill has been submitted to the Senate for review, marking a step towards the mainstream application of cryptocurrencies.
Blockchain analytics platform Arkham has pointed out that Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto's wealth has surpassed that of Bill Gates, with a net worth of $116.7 billion compared to Gates' $116.2 billion. This milestone highlights Bitcoin's influence in global finance.
In the crypto space, NFT platform Magic Eden has announced a collaboration with the TRUMP team to develop a wallet aimed at promoting the adoption of cryptocurrency. Magic Eden CEO Jack stated on the X platform that the wallet supports mainstream and Meme transactions such as BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, XRP, DOGE, and TRUMP, allowing users to explore new assets across major blockchains. This mobile app will provide a smooth experience similar to centralized platforms while achieving complete self-custody, with more innovative features to be launched in the future.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown little volatility, despite Trump raising steel tariffs and continuing communication with China last Friday. The market has become accustomed to Trump's tariff strategies. Players often use his tariff threats to short the S&P 500, with effects typically dissipating within a few days to a week. The final adjustment of Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' is scheduled for July 8, and in the coming month, tariffs and Federal Reserve policy will be key factors influencing market trends. The job vacancy data released on Monday had a limited impact, with market focus shifting to Friday's unemployment rate, employment, and wage data.
On-chain data for Bitcoin shows that the turnover rate has significantly increased recently, with two transfers totaling over 230,000 BTC possibly being a consolidation of platform wallets. This occurs on average once per quarter and has not significantly impacted the price, with Bitcoin continuing to oscillate within a narrow range. The $93,000 to $98,000 range serves as solid support, and as long as there is no mass exit from this range, the price will remain stable.
(Figure 1)
Overall, if Bitcoin rebounds above $108,500, it may indicate the beginning of a larger level adjustment. As shown in Figure 1, a divergence pattern will appear as it approaches the top range. Small-scale divergences often lead major trends, but the transmission takes time. Current signals indicate that Bitcoin may enter a phase of a peak range, but predicting the exact peak price is challenging. Most signals lean towards the left side, and in a low liquidity environment, sudden events could alter the market trajectory.