From surplus to deep pit, the trajectory of the U.S. fiscal deficit over 25 years is clear:
Fiscal Year Budget Deficit
2000. +$236 billion (surplus)
2009. -$1.41 trillion (financial crisis)
2020. -$3.13 trillion (COVID-19)
2024. -$1.83 trillion (historically the third highest)
Key analysis: FY 2024 data
• Spending: $6.75 trillion
• Revenue: $4.92 trillion
• Deficit: $1.83 trillion (27%)
This means: For every $1 spent by the U.S., 27 cents is borrowed.
Why is the deficit persistently high?
1. Soaring social security and healthcare expenditures
2. Military spending and aid programs remain high
3. Tax cuts + soaring interest expenses
4. Political division leads to fiscal management paralysis
The risk of deficit is becoming apparent:
• The total national debt has exceeded $36 trillion
• Interest expenses annualized to over $1 trillion, surpassing military spending
• If debt continues to worsen, it may impact the U.S. dollar's credit rating, treasury yields, and even the independence of Federal Reserve policy.
The harsh reality:
Even with budget cuts, the new spending bill will increase U.S. debt by about $3 trillion over the next 10 years.
If the incremental interest expenses of this debt (with rising interest rates) are taken into account, it could increase by nearly $5 trillion by 2035.
Worse still, this forecast assumes no economic recession over the next 10 years, in which case the massive deficit could double expectations.
When Elon Musk began collaborating with DOGE, his goal was to cut federal spending by $1 trillion by the end of FY 2025.
Conversely, just as the new spending bill is passed, our FY 2025 deficit will reach $1.9 trillion, accounting for 6.2% of GDP.
So far, DOGE has cut about $175 billion in government spending, but the deficit is expected to increase by about 17 times over the next 10 years.
Despite weak demand for bond auctions, rising yields are sending warning signals, but deficit spending continues to worsen.
Even in a context of peace, no pandemic, and moderate economic growth, the U.S. is pulling the fiscal deficit into an abyss.
This is not alarmism; the data is speaking.
