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Market trends are always interesting. In last night's article, we mentioned that if Bitcoin's short-term pullback does not break below 103600, there is still a possibility of another surge to 106500. Last night's pullback hit a low of 103659, and today it rebounded to 106500, aligning with our expectations. Ethereum has also successfully risen above 2600, completing the structure of the 1h level rebound. Now Bitcoin and Ethereum's short-term structures are synchronized.

Since there hasn't been a further break below 104000 here for the time being, we are uncertain whether the short-term will rebound once more near 106500 or slightly above. However, it is certain that even if there is another rebound here, it is likely the last 15-minute level rebound. Overall, the fifth 1h level decline is about to begin, with a target below focusing on near 100000. If it breaks down, look at the needle range of 95000~100000.

The overall pullback of Ethereum has not ended. Some people are asking why Ethereum suddenly became strong today. It's not that it became strong, but rather that it was supposed to rebound but was slow to rise. Then, just when the rebound was about to happen, it surged up. In our article on June 1, we clearly mentioned that Ethereum's 1h rebound would see 2600~2620. Today, it successfully reached our expected position.

This phenomenon may continue to appear in the future, i.e., during a certain rising trend, Bitcoin and Ethereum rise synchronously, with Bitcoin rebounding first to the expected target while Ethereum is slow to catch up. You might think Ethereum is weak and that’s just how it is. However, Ethereum eventually catches up, and within a few hours or more, a few large bullish candles appear, directly reaching the target. The same applies to declines; you might think the short-term rise is significant and that Ethereum shouldn't decline much, but unexpectedly, while Bitcoin hasn't dropped much, Ethereum quickly falls to the expected position.

Understanding such characteristics might help you avoid entering early whether you are going long or short on Ethereum. For example, many people shorted Ethereum near 2530 last night, but when they woke up this morning, Ethereum was above 2600. This indicates that you did not understand the similarities and differences in the movements of Ethereum and Bitcoin, which led to an early short position on Ethereum.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, which are merely for reference.

1H:

At the 1h level, the current trend is quite clear. It is currently running the fourth segment of the 1h level rebound within the 4h level decline. This 1h rebound is expected to be about finished, at most making one more push above 106500. However, it is also very likely that it will not push up again. It is anticipated that the fifth 1h level decline is about to begin, with the target first looking at 100000, and if it breaks below, then the range of 95000~100000.

First 1h decline: 111980~106600, lasting approximately 2 days and 21 hours.

Second 1h rebound: 106600~110718, lasting approximately 1 day and 22 hours.

Third 1h decline: 110718~103068, lasting approximately 3 days and 14 hours.

Fourth 1h rebound: 103068~106500 (ending point provisional), lasting approximately 2 days and 23 hours.

Fifth 1h decline: 106500~100000? (Starting and ending points are yet to be determined)

Note: A 1h level rise or decline does not mean it only rises or falls for 1 hour. The 1-hour level here refers to a period of rise or decline that we designate as the 1h level. Typically, a 1h level rise or decline takes 1 to 3 days, and it can even last five to six days or more. However, 1 to 3 days is more common.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, the overall 1h level rebound structure has indeed unfolded as we expected, completing 5 segments. It is temporarily uncertain whether a 1h level pullback has started here; we can observe whether it continues to break below 104000 this evening. If it breaks, it is likely that the fifth 1h level decline has already begun, as indicated by the white arrow in the above image.

If it does not break below 104000, then we need to be cautious about the possibility of another short-term rebound to 106500 before starting a 1h level decline, as indicated by the green arrow in the above image.

ETH

Ethereum has successfully emerged from the second 1h level rebound in the 4h level pullback here, reaching a high of 2649. It is expected that the third 1h level decline is about to occur. A re-break below 2560 can confirm a new short-term 1h level decline. If this decline successfully materializes, pay attention to the range of 2450~2400 below.

At the 15-minute level, it is temporarily uncertain whether the 1h level rebound has definitely ended. If the decline goes smoothly, it should directly move into a 1h decline. However, if the decline is not smooth, prepare for another rebound near 2650. It is certain that even if there is another rebound wave, the follow-up will still lead to a third 1h decline.

Trend direction

Weekly level: direction is upwards, currently undergoing a new weekly level rise, with an overall target looking above 150,000.

Daily level: direction is upwards, currently undergoing a daily level rebound, with the target for this daily rise being around 120000~130000.

At the 4-hour level: direction is downwards. In the 4h level pullback, initially focus on near 100000.

1-hour level: direction is downwards, about to undergo the fifth 1h decline, pay attention to the intensity.

At the 15-minute level: direction is upwards. First, pay attention to whether 104000 can be broken, and be prepared for a possible additional surge.