Bitcoin was flooded with positive news around the peak of 110,000. However, the price did not form a continuous upward attack and instead experienced a significant retracement. This behavior is usually a bad omen, as the market makers would use a lot of positive news to facilitate selling during the market peak. Although there have been more expectations for the bulls, we have to first cope with the current trend. The short-term structure is still in retracement, and the bulls have not officially returned.
Even though there formed a decent support near 103,000 and rebounded over 3,500 USD to 106,500, after the price rebounded, there was no small top oscillation and it was sold off again. This indicates that the rebound process after early morning today was merely a short rebound release of bulls after a decline, rather than a real stop-loss rally. Therefore, from a purely structural perspective, it is believed that the current downward adjustment has not yet ended, indicating that lower retracement prices are awaiting everyone.
Especially from the perspective of the 4-hour candlestick, the entire candlestick has formed a downward channel, with the upward movement hitting the pressure line before touching MA60 and retracing due to selling pressure eager to sell. Considering the current actions, it is believed that the price has not stabilized above 107,000 for 24 hours (all candlesticks stabilize above the 4-hour MA60, breaking the downward channel). Therefore, the retracement cannot be considered an end; we need to continue looking down based on the current structure. The next strong support comes around the 100,000 mark, and after a simple rebound, it is expected to continue downward extension to around 94,000 for a pause, followed by a significant second surge that releases bullish buying pressure exceeding the 100,000 mark. Hence, everyone’s maximum bearish expectation should aim for the sideways consolidation around 94,000 by the end of April and early May.
Of course, to break the expectation of the downward channel, the BTC price needs to stabilize buying pressure above 107,000 USD.
In summary, everyone should pay attention to the price direction breakthroughs at 107,000 and 103,000.
In terms of responding to the market, it is recommended to take short-term trades for now. It is suggested to go long when the BTC price is below 104,000, with a stop loss at the low of this round of retracement at 103,000, targeting 105,000. Short positions should be taken above 105,800, with a stop loss at 107,000, targeting 103,500 and 101,500.
