$BTC #BTC Jerome Powell's speech at the anniversary conference of the International Finance Division (IF) at the Federal Reserve quietly indicated the central bank's increasing openness to easing monetary policy. This potential shift drove Bitcoin

BTCUSD

to soar above $105,000.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to work against political pressure from President Trump, who calls for interest rate cuts. This disagreement has fueled speculation about Powell's imminent resignation.

Bitcoin's rise as IF models signal a weak dollar.

Bitcoin climbed above $105,000 on Monday, driven by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may be preparing to change its stance on monetary policy later this year.

The rise also followed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the 75th anniversary conference of the International Finance Division (IF). Powell emphasized in his speech the critical role of data and global models in shaping U.S. monetary policy.

However, he did not directly indicate any change in interest rates. While Powell's remarks were framed as a tribute to the legacy of the International Finance Division. Analysts and cryptocurrency investors analyzed his words for clues about policy amidst increasing signs of declining inflation and economic resilience.

"Understanding this complex and interconnected network is essential for us to anticipate the trajectory of employment and inflation," Powell said in remarks.

Although Powell did not mention easing or rate cuts, he emphasized that the International Finance Division's research is pivotal in "assessing the risks and uncertainties facing participants in the Federal Open Market Committee before each meeting."

This line, along with the Federal Reserve Chairman's comment that the division's work is "certainly relevant today," sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve is preparing for a potential shift toward easing if current economic trends continue.

The Federal Reserve's global lens aligns with favorable market winds.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed inflation slowing to 2.3% year-on-year, approaching the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the United States remains steady at around 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is still resilient.

This combination of declining inflation and job stability supports both sides of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. Cryptocurrency market analyst Kyle Chasse referred to these dynamics as fuel for risk assets like Bitcoin.

"Is there an upcoming shift from the Fed? The latest consumer price index data came in at +2.3% year-on-year. Unemployment is stable around 4.2%. Fed officials say that if inflation continues to decline and jobs remain strong, rate cuts will be on the table later this year. This is rocket fuel for Bitcoin," Chasse posted on X.

Investors also noted that Powell praised the development of the IF division for advanced models of "assessing risks and uncertainties through alternative scenarios." According to Powell, these models are essential in understanding the impact of global shocks.

Although not tied to any specific forecasts, these capabilities are increasingly viewed by market participants as the basis for a responsive monetary policy in the second half (H2) of 2025.

Is the recovery of Bitcoin a bet on policy changes?

Bitcoin's move above $105,000 reflects broader optimism that the Fed will begin easing before the end of the year, especially if inflation continues its downward trend.

According to data on the CME FedWatchTool, markets are pricing in a 95.3% probability that the Fed will maintain the current target rate of 4.25-4.50 basis points (bps) at the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025. At the same time, there is a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut to 4.00-4.25 basis points.

Although the central bank remains cautious in its general language, Powell's focus on modeling global risks and his acknowledgment of ongoing uncertainties suggests a more data-responsive stance.

"This work is crucial for understanding the quantitative effects of uncertainty shocks. Certainly, it is relevant today," Powell noted.

For Bitcoin supporters, this connection could translate into a more lenient environment where digital assets benefit from accommodative financial conditions, a weaker dollar, and investors seeking alternative stores of value.

While the Fed has not confirmed a shift, the market is listening carefully, with Bitcoin remaining well above $105,000.

BeInCrypto data shows that Bitcoin was trading at $105,568 at the time of writing, an increase of 0.62% in the past 24 hours.

As Kyle Chasse suggests, a rate cut could stimulate Bitcoin growth. However, the significant probability of no change may delay any major bullish momentum in the near term, likely explaining the modest gains.