The so-called RSI top divergence refers to the situation where Bitcoin price reaches a new high, but the RSI (Relative Strength Index) fails to refresh its high simultaneously, theoretically indicating insufficient upward momentum, which may lead to a pullback or peak.
The RSI indicator is mainly used to assess market trends and measure the strength comparison between bulls and bears, with a value range of 0-100: when RSI ≥ 70, the market is in an overbought state; when RSI ≤ 30, it is in an oversold state. Overbought often indicates strong short-term buying, posing a risk of pullback; oversold indicates significant selling pressure, which may lead to a rebound.
However, the reality is that there have been multiple instances of top divergence signals in Bitcoin's history, but only a 20% chance of triggering a phase decline. The reference value of this indicator is limited, and past statements of 'calling the top' have been disproven by the market.
2015: 'Divergence indicates a peak!' — Subsequently, BTC price surged 10 times. 2017: 'This divergence situation is special!' — BTC continued to rise sharply for months. 2019: 'The top is finally confirmed!' — Subsequently, a 4-fold increase followed. The only time it worked: 2021 (successful only once out of five attempts).
After years of trials and tribulations, the trend of Bitcoin can no longer be interpreted simply through K-line charts. What deserves more attention now are the Bitcoin spot ETF data and on-chain dynamics.
Spot ETF scale: As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $125.472 billion, accounting for 6.02% of Bitcoin's total market value, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $44.102 billion. Fund flow comparison: Data from May 2025 shows a net inflow of $5.25 billion into Bitcoin ETFs, while gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.58 billion, indicating capital is accelerating towards crypto assets. On-chain holding trends: From wallet inflow and outflow data, the number of hoarders has significantly increased. Since 2025, institutional buyers have cumulatively increased their holdings by 417,000 BTC, while retail investors have reduced their holdings by 158,000 BTC.
The essence of the market is a game of supply and demand: when buying demand continues to grow and selling pressure decreases, prices naturally rise. Currently, institutional demand for Bitcoin is strong, while Bitcoin mining output remains constant. As the future halving cycle approaches, the supply of new coins will further shrink. Based on this trend, Bitcoin demand is expected to continue to rise, and the price center will keep moving upward. Once institutions hold more chips, their pricing power will become increasingly solid — this is the core logic behind 'Bitcoin's rise has no upper limit.'
Regarding altcoins, the strategy that has been repeatedly emphasized in recent years still applies: focus primarily on short-term trading. Currently, new projects are exploding; only ALPHA has about 6 projects queued to be listed on Binance every week, not to mention a large number of unlisted tokens. The future crypto space may evolve into an ecosystem where 'there are more speculators than investors.' Besides leading mainstream altcoins, do not bet on new projects for the long term to avoid deep entrapment.
Every Bitcoin pullback that triggers a decline in altcoins is a potential bottom-fishing opportunity. However, it is important to note: being afraid to enter during a decline and blindly chasing highs during an increase is often the root of losses. Grasping the rhythm and timing rationally is essential to capturing opportunities amidst volatility.
