In an era of wealth anxiety, the cryptocurrency market attracts countless ordinary people attempting to achieve upward mobility through legends like 'hundredfold coins creating wealth' and 'contracts leading to overnight riches.' However, the harsh truth of the market is that over 90% of participants leave the game with losses in the long-term competition. Ordinary people looking to turn their fortunes around through cryptocurrency trading need to penetrate the surface and understand the essence of risks and opportunities.
I. Market Truth: The Harsh Reality Behind Wealth Myths
1. Survivorship Bias in Wealth Stories
Blockchain media enthusiastically portrays cases like 'college students turning 5000 yuan into tens of millions trading cryptocurrencies' and 'programmers hitting it big with Bitcoin for financial freedom,' but these success stories represent only a tiny fraction of the market. Most see only a few people who seized the miracle of Bitcoin rising from $1 to $69,000, while ignoring the many who lost everything in bear markets or went bankrupt due to contract liquidations.
2. The High-Risk Nature of the Market
Extreme Volatility: It is not uncommon for Bitcoin to drop more than 30% in a single day (like the 'Black Thursday' in March 2020) or for Dogecoin to surge 500% in one day; such volatility can lead inexperienced investors to instant liquidation or missed opportunities.
Information Asymmetry: Institutional investors dominate the market through professional analysis and quantitative strategies, while ordinary people rely on social media 'rumors' or 'big accounts' for information, often becoming targets for exploitation.
Regulatory Gap: The lack of unified regulation in cryptocurrencies poses risks such as project teams running away (like the FTX bankruptcy incident) and money laundering with virtual currencies, making it difficult for ordinary investors to ensure the safety of their funds.
II. Core Challenges Faced by Ordinary People
1. Insufficient Cognition and Professional Ability
Most newcomers have only a rudimentary understanding of blockchain technology, smart contract principles, and cryptocurrency economic models, making it impossible to discern project value. For example, many blindly follow the hype around 'shitcoins' (Meme coins) without understanding their lack of practical application and their complete reliance on emotional drives.
2. Emotional and Psychological Games
Chasing Highs and Selling on Dips: Impulsively chasing high prices during market surges and panic-selling during downturns creates a vicious cycle of 'buying at the peak and selling at the trough.'
Gambler's Mentality: Some view cryptocurrency trading as gambling, using family savings or even borrowing to leverage, and once they incur losses, they fall into a deeper debt trap.
3. Disadvantages in Capital and Resources
Professional institutions possess tens of millions in funds, quantitative trading systems, and top analyst teams, while ordinary people rely solely on personal judgment and are at a disadvantage in terms of capital scale, information acquisition, and analytical ability.
III. Viable Paths to Profit (Requires Extremely High Barriers)
Despite numerous difficulties, a few ordinary individuals achieve steady returns through scientific strategies, but they must meet the following stringent conditions:
1. Establish a Complete Trading System
Clarify Risk Tolerance: Invest only idle funds (no more than 5% of household assets) to avoid impacting quality of life.
Focus on Mainstream Assets: Allocate 90% of your portfolio to Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other top 5 cryptocurrencies by market cap to avoid the risk of altcoins going to zero.
Strictly Execute Discipline: Set stop-loss levels (e.g., mandatory exit at an 8% loss) and profit targets (e.g., selling in batches at a 30% profit) to avoid emotional trading.
II. Long-Termism and Cognitive Accumulation
In-depth Industry Research: Spend 1-2 years learning about blockchain technology, policy dynamics, and market cycle laws, rather than blindly following trends.
Seize Cyclical Opportunities: The cryptocurrency market has a clear 4-year bull-bear cycle (with Bitcoin halving as a node), laying out at the bear market bottom and exiting during the bull market bubble.
3. Risk Hedging and Diversified Investment
Asset Diversification: Allocate funds across different domains such as spot trading, stablecoins, and decentralized finance (DeFi) yields to reduce the impact of single asset volatility.
Hedging Tools: Use derivatives like options and futures to hedge risks rather than purely speculating.
IV. Ultimate Advice for Ordinary People
Face Risks Realistically and Abandon Wealth Fantasies: Cryptocurrency trading is a high-risk investment, not a 'shortcut to turning fortunes around.' If you cannot bear the risk of losing your principal, it is advisable to stay away.
Enhance Cognition and Reject Blind Following: Learn before you practice, and be wary of 'insider information' and 'hundredfold coin recommendations' that may be misleading.
Seek Alternative Paths: Instead of risking it in cryptocurrency trading, consider investing time and resources in professional skill enhancement, entrepreneurship, or traditional stable investments (like index fund dollar-cost averaging).
The probability of ordinary people turning their fortunes around through cryptocurrency trading is akin to the combined difficulty of 'winning the lottery' and 'achieving entrepreneurial success.' The market is never short on wealth myths but is filled with tragedies of total loss. Genuine wealth accumulation requires rational cognition, scientific strategies, and long-termism, rather than gambler-style risks. If you want to survive in the cryptocurrency market, first learn to protect your principal before discussing profits; if you cannot bear the risks, cutting losses and exiting in time may be the wisest choice.
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