#BTC #etf

Let’s talk about the fundamentals of this round of market trends and make a comparison.

The three major drivers of this round come from: Fed release + ETF + Bitcoin halving.

Today's market expectations are based on ETFs, and the macro-level water release and Bitcoin production reduction expectations have not yet begun to speculate, so in terms of the big cycle, the market is still in a very early stage.

Compared with the previous bull market, the difference is. The main narrative of the last round came from Ethereum scaling. Therefore, various public chains were born, and the main products are defi+nft+gamefi. This round is likely to revolve around the Bitcoin ecosystem. The current products are mainly inscriptions. What new concepts will there be? depin? rwa? These need to be paid attention to, after all, the odds and wealth creation effect of inscriptions are here.

In the last round, before 3.12, Bitcoin reached around 10,000. It finally collapsed (deleveraging, washing away chips), and it took 1 and a half years to reach the highest point of 69,000. It had a maximum gain of about 700% before the crash. I don’t know if there will be deleveraging in this round (it is estimated to be a high probability). If the expected returns are also halved, Bitcoin will exceed 100,000 this year and next. It is estimated to be around 150,000.