$BTC #BTC After surpassing the $111,000 price threshold, the currency began to show signs of decline over the past two weeks, raising concerns among some investors about the possibility of a 'double top' pattern forming.
This technical pattern is often considered a signal of a sharp reversal in direction, similar to what occurred in 2021. However, experienced analysts argue that these concerns are unfounded, asserting that the current market conditions are fundamentally different from what they were four years ago.
What makes the repetition of the 2021 peak unlikely in 2025?
As previously analyzed on BeInCrypto, some signs of divergence have appeared, which may signal a shift in Bitcoin's trajectory in June. If this scenario materializes, the double top pattern may complete and lead to a correction exceeding 70%, similar to what occurred in 2021.
The analyst known as Stockmoney Lizards believes that the divergence signal based on the RSI is not very reliable, as it has failed to predict previous peaks most of the time. He said:
"Do you want to know what I discovered? This indicator has been wrong most of the time. In 2015: 'divergence means a peak!' – Bitcoin's price rose tenfold. In 2017: 'this divergence is different!' – Bitcoin continued to rise for months. In 2019: 'finally confirmed!' – it rose again four times. The only time it was right was in 2021. One out of five. So should we sell everything based on an indicator that has failed 80% of the time?"
In addition to questioning the validity of technical indicators, the analyst also highlights some positive signals that may have been overlooked. Among them is the increase in the number of active wallets, which indicates growing participation from both individual and institutional investors.
Moreover, the MVRV Z-Score—an on-chain metric that measures BTC's valuation relative to its fair value—is currently low. Historically, this indicates that Bitcoin is not overvalued and still has room for growth.
What has changed in Bitcoin's situation since 2021?
Beyond technical indicators and on-chain data, Thomas Vaheer, founder of the ApolloSats platform, points out the fundamental differences between the current situation and the market in 2021. He emphasizes that that period witnessed a wave of impactful negative events.
Several factors contributed to Bitcoin's decline after its peak. These factors included the collapse of the Luna project, a well-known Ponzi scheme, the sale of 'paper Bitcoin' by FTX without actual backing, and the rapid increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve to combat inflation.
These combined factors contributed to creating an unstable environment for the cryptocurrency market, resulting in a sharp decline in Bitcoin's value. Today, Vaheer asserts that 2025 holds a completely different story, supported by positive developments that form a new backbone for the market. These developments include the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, major companies buying billions of dollars in Bitcoin as reserves, and even some U.S. states building Bitcoin treasuries. These moves represent a significant structural shift.
Today, BTC is treated as a reliable asset among institutions, rather than just a speculative tool as it was before.
Vaheer summarized his opinion by saying:
"Comparing the double top in 2021 to what is happening now is ridiculous."
Analyst Stockmoney Lizards shares this view, also indicating that the large inflow of institutional capital is a decisive factor in the overall landscape for 2025.
At first glance, the charts may look similar to what they were in 2021, prompting some technical analysts to worry. However, the nature of markets is not static; it continually evolves and does not repeat in the same way.
