I've been bullied a bit by some haters during this time. There aren't many new trades opened; it's more about holding onto old positions. Especially some short positions that have already gone up once, some are patiently held until they go to zero.
To get back on track, how do we predict the market? In fact, we can't predict it at all. When you give up on predicting, that's when trading matures. Trade without predicting, just follow. When following, try to be proactive as much as possible. Not predicting doesn't mean we don't manage expectations; once we have expectation management, we just execute according to the signals.
Here's a very simple example: most people can drive. Driving is somewhat similar to trading. When driving, no one predicts in advance which intersection will have pedestrians at the crosswalk, which intersection will have a red light, or which intersection has a car that shouldn't come in. That's unrealistic.
This kind of prediction is also impossible. When we drive, most of the time we are observing the road conditions. We stop at red lights, and we yield when another car changes lanes. A red light is a signal, and braking is the execution. Pedestrians crossing at a crosswalk is a signal, and yielding is the execution.
It's the same in trading. When different signals appear in your trading system, just take the corresponding actions.
Don't think about predicting the market; it's impossible. However, we should try to prepare corresponding execution strategies for potential signals that may arise in the market, and then patiently wait to execute when signals appear.
I used to subjectively believe that BTC would reach 120,000, but now the market has shown signs of a double top. Shouldn't I execute and hold onto my short positions? Wait for it to drop to a reasonable level, stabilize, show signs of interest rate cuts, or other possible signs of a triple top before following up with a long position?
I don't know if there will be a triple top and another push to 120,000 due to interest rate cuts at the end of the year, but there needs to be expectation management. At least the current signals are bearish, and that's enough. Don't predict, just follow!#加密市场回调
