US PCE will be announced tonight, durable goods prices have fallen into negative territory, but core service inflation remains "stuck" at a high level?

Higher than expected PCE: This could reinforce market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or raise rates, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, typically declines in sync with tech stocks, as funds flow into safer dollar assets; Lower than expected PCE: This could ease rate hike pressures and even trigger expectations for a rate cut. Under expectations of liquidity easing, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin often rebound as market risk appetite increases.

Historical case reference — October 2023 PCE data: Core PCE year-on-year fell to 3.5% (previous value 3.7%), and after the data was released, Bitcoin rose about 3% within 24 hours, as the market bet on the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes; June 2022 PCE soared: Core PCE reached 4.8%, and Bitcoin fell 15% that month, as expectations for aggressive 75 basis point rate hikes by the Federal Reserve intensified.

PCE data indirectly affects Bitcoin by changing monetary policy expectations, but the unique characteristics of the crypto market may lead to overreactions or delays. Traders need to weigh macro trends against the cryptocurrency's own cycles and flexibly adjust their position management. #比特币 #中心化与去中心化交易所 #交易类型入门 #特朗普媒体科技集团比特币财库 #PCE数据来袭