Lately, I’ve been watching one chart on repeat: M2 vs. TOTAL3 (minus 12 weeks).

If history rhymes (and it often does) then this setup could validate my cautious bullishness on alts.

But here’s what really caught my attention lately:

1) Bitcoin’s 60-day correlation to U.S. 10Y Treasury Futures just hit an all-time low.

Smart money may be quietly rotating out of bonds and into Bitcoin. For those watching macro flows, this could be the chart to keep on your radar.

2) For almost two years, VIX futures lived in a compression channel, a dream for risk-on traders.

Here’s what I see:

- VIX broke trend and is riding a steep ascending channel

- Systemic volatility being repriced

- MOVE (bond market VIX) never cooled, rates are now amplifying equity stress

- We’ve officially entered a new volatility regime

We’re seeing:

Structural vol shift—traders still expect 2020-style spikes/reversions, but we’re stair-stepping like 2007–08.

Liquidity is behavioral now—hedge fund beta at decade highs. One vol pop = cascade of exits = no liquidity.

Geopolitical stress—Tariffs, sanctions, capital controls, and intentional uncertainty are now policy tools.

Bottom line:

If VIX holds this steep channel, risk premia across all assets need to be repriced. That means: Lower equity valuations, Higher tail risk, Tighter liquidity, A systemic re-rating of what “risk-free” means.

3) Sovereign duration risk is being repriced

This is about structural trust in sovereign balance sheets.

- Rising real yields = markets demanding more for long-term risk

- Policy paralysis = central banks stuck between inflation and asset collapse

- Capital repatriation risk = if Japan loses control, global outflows reverse

- We’re entering a regime where long-duration debt behaves like a risk asset.

And that should terrify anyone clinging to outdated models.👇🧵