On May 30, the last day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference, the market once again confirmed the curse of major drops during conferences.

This morning, Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000, reaching a low of $103,000. Ethereum also dropped from a high of $2,788 to a low of $2,475. The altcoin market generally experienced a pullback, with some altcoins like BERA even hitting all-time lows.

In macro markets, U.S. crypto stocks COIN and MSTR both fell in after-hours trading. The Fed's interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with Fed's Daly stating on Thursday that while policymakers may still cut rates twice this year, current rates should remain stable to ensure inflation can meet the Fed's 2% target. Daly emphasized that as long as inflation is above target and uncertainty exists, inflation will be a focus since the labor market remains robust. Additionally, on Wednesday, a U.S. trade court blocked Trump's tariff measures, but this was overturned by an appeals court on Thursday, highlighting the uncertainty in trade policy, which many businesses and the Fed find concerning.

Is this pullback a healthy short-term correction, or are we about to enter another long-term consolidation phase?

A slight pullback does not signify the end of the market; the risk structure remains favorable.

Since the April low, futures open interest has surged significantly. Despite Solana retreating to a secondary position due to a cooling off of meme coins and the Pump.fun craze, Bitcoin's open interest has seen significant growth. This spike may reflect a shift in market risk appetite, especially following the recent reversal of Trump's tariff policy. Bitcoin continues to play a dual role as both a 'risk-on' and 'safe-haven' asset, increasingly aligning with the narrative of 'digital gold.'

Open interest now seems to be stabilizing, which may indicate that traders are beginning to take profits and plan to re-enter at lower levels.

Bitcoin enters a healthy consolidation phase

After reaching an all-time high in January, Bitcoin experienced a 32% pullback, but has since rebounded strongly by over 50%, hitting a new high of $111,880, and is now in a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, a surge in spot market participation, and positive 'realized net capital' growth have driven structural buying in the market rather than excessive speculation. Despite a decline in macro risk appetite, such as reports of the U.S. potentially imposing a 50% tariff on European imports, Bitcoin has remained resilient, showing no significant drop during the deleveraging and profit-taking process.

This resilience is sparking market attention on Bitcoin evolving into a 'macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset,' with its trading behavior now more correlated with global liquidity trends rather than retail sentiment.

Notably, Japan's Metaplanet company has increased its Bitcoin holdings to $104 million, and Michigan's proposal to introduce legislation favorable to crypto assets further validates the growing support for digital assets from institutions and policymakers.

Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can maintain consolidation above its short-term holder cost basis (around $95,000) will be key. Over the past month, short-term holders have realized profits exceeding $11.4 billion, so there may be some selling pressure in the short term, but structural demand remains. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and premium signals in the spot market all indicate that the market is maturing, and once the macro environment clarifies, further upward movement may follow.