Bitcoin Halving Cycle and Price Prediction
Bitcoin sets the miner reward to halve every four years, creating a four-year bull and bear cycle. The historical halving dates are:
November 2012: 50 coins → 25 coins
July 2016: 25 coins → 12.5 coins
May 2020: 12.5 coins → 6.25 coins
April 2024: 6.25 coins → 3.125 coins
The next halving is expected in 2028, and the cycle logic remains unchanged.
Historical Patterns: New Highs After Halving and Time Cycles
Time Pattern: Each halving takes about 540 days to reach a new price high (this has been the case for the first three rounds).
The new high after the 2012 halving took 540 days, an increase of 10,752%;
The new high after the 2016 halving took 549 days, an increase of 2,263%;
The new high after the 2020 halving took 562 days, an increase of 662%;
After the halving in April 2024, based on the cycle, the new high point may be around October 2025 (about 1 year has passed, approximately 5 months remaining).
Increase Pattern: The multiplication of increases decreases after each halving:
2012-2016: Increase multiplication 4.75 (10,752% → 2,263%)
2016-2020: Increase multiplication 3.41 (2,263% → 662%)
2020-2024: Current increase 76% (after 6.25 coins → 3.125 coins), far below historical levels.
Current High Point Prediction: Mathematical Model and Interval Estimation
Using an average price of $65,000 as a baseline, combined with the historical decrease in multiplication:
If the increase multiplication is 2 (conservative):
$65,000 × (1 + 200%) = $195,000
If the increase multiplication is 2.5 (neutral):
$65,000 × (1 + 250%) = $227,500
If the multiplication approaches the historical minimum value of 1.31 (corresponding to $150,000): $65,000 × 1.31 ≈ $85,150 (closest to the current price, but less likely).
Conclusion: Combining cycle patterns and decreasing multiplications, the current high point is likely within the range of $170,000 - $230,000, with $150,000 being a more conservative definite target; higher points will need to observe market liquidity and the macroeconomic environment.
