$BTC $ETH $BNB #PCE数据来袭 ATFX Forex Market: Today at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the year-on-year core PCE price index for April, with a previous value of 2.6% and an expected value of 2.5%, indicating a decrease of only 0.1 percentage points. However, after a sharp drop in the PCE data for March, even a small decrease in April's data could trigger market expectations for a steady decline in U.S. inflation. The Federal Reserve will assess the inflation trend based on PCE data when adjusting monetary policy. If the April PCE year-on-year rate decreases, it indicates that the current benchmark interest rate is significantly suppressing demand for goods, increasing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, which would boost the U.S. dollar index. The core CPI year-on-year rate for the U.S. in April has already been released, with a latest value of 2.8%, unchanged from the previous value. In most cases, the core CPI year-on-year rate and the core PCE year-on-year rate resonate, so the difference between April's core PCE year-on-year rate and the previous value is not expected to be large, with a high probability of achieving the market's expected slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points. Historical data shows that since February this year, the core CPI year-on-year rate curve has begun to decline, and there has been no significant rebound so far, indicating a reduced likelihood of a resurgence in high inflation.
At this stage, the trend of the U.S. dollar index is dominated by news, and economic data has a weaker influence on the market. On Wednesday, it was reported that the U.S. trade court rejected Trump's aggressive policy from April, and on Thursday the situation reversed again as the U.S. circuit court suspended the trade court's ruling. The erratic policy changes have caused severe fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and non-U.S. currencies. The dollar index soared to 100.55 yesterday before falling to a low of 99.22. As of today, the dollar index is operating below the 100 mark.
To predict U.S. price fluctuations, in addition to CPI data, one can also observe changes in the commodity market, especially the oil market. Changes in oil prices directly affect logistics and transportation costs, indirectly impacting the prices of most goods and services. In April, U.S. crude oil plummeted by 18.55%, hitting a low of $55.12 per barrel, primarily due to OPEC's increase in production and weak demand. Based on this, it is unlikely that the April PCE year-on-year data will show an increase. Due to the lagging impact of oil price changes on overall prices, there is a high probability that the April PCE data will remain stable or slightly decline. If the downward trend in oil prices continues, the CPI and PCE data for May may decline significantly. From a structural perspective, on the daily level, the dollar index is in a significant bearish trend; however, the recent wave of upward and downward movements shows a bottoming structure, suggesting a possible mid-term trend reversal in the future. The latest market price is operating near the 0.618 golden ratio level of the previous upward wave, with a high probability of obtaining effective support. Yesterday, influenced by news, the dollar index formed a long upper shadow on the daily chart, combined with the short real long lower shadow candlestick from May 26, indicating a high probability of forming a narrow fluctuation range in this area in the future.
