1. Data > Expectations (＞2.5%)
- Strengthening dollar: Federal Reserve rate cut expectations cool, decreasing the probability of a first rate cut in September (current CME shows probability around 50%)
- US Treasury yields jump: 10-year US Treasury may quickly break above 4.6%, putting pressure on risk assets
- US stock market correction: Tech stocks (NASDAQ) are the most sensitive, which may drag down the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market
2. Data ≤ Expectations (≤2.5%)
- Weakening dollar: Market bets on a September rate cut, providing breathing room for risk assets
- Cryptocurrency market rebound: BTC/ETH is expected to break through the recent volatility range (BTC $67K-$70K, ETH $3.7K-$3.9K)
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### Specific Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
#### 1. Short-term Volatility Intensifies
- Leverage liquidation risk: If data exceeds expectations, it may trigger liquidations of over $100 million in long positions within one hour (refer to $300 million liquidation after May 14 CPI release)
- Support levels for mainstream coins:
- BTC: $67,000 (daily MA50) → if it falls below, look down to $65,000
- ETH: $3,700 (weekly Bollinger middle band) → key psychological level
#### 2. Divergence in Fund Flows
- Risk-averse behavior: Some funds may temporarily flow into stablecoins (USDT premium index currently reported at 1.0003; if it rises above 1.001, it indicates risk-averse demand)
- Vulnerability of altcoins: Low liquidity altcoins (24h trading volume <$10 million) are prone to flash crashes of over 5%
#### 3. Mid-term Trend Clues
- Rate cut expectations pricing: If PCE remains ≤2.6% for two consecutive months, the market may trade in advance for a September rate cut, which would benefit cryptocurrency market liquidity in Q3
- Institutional trends: BlackRock/Fidelity BTC ETF fund flow (net inflow of $820 million in the past 5 days) may reinforce the anti-inflation narrative
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### Historical Correlation Reference
| Event | Core PCE | BTC 24h Performance | Dollar Index (DXY) |
|----------------------|---------|------------|--------------|
| March 29, 2024 | 2.8%↑ | -4.2% | +0.7% |
| February 29, 2024 | 2.5%→ | +1.8% | -0.2% |
| December 22, 2023 | 3.2%↑ | -6.9% | +1.1% |
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### Suggested Operational Strategy
- Aggressive traders:
- Reduce high leverage positions in the first 30 minutes after data release, reserve margin to cope with 10% fluctuations
- If the published value ≤2.5%, quickly position long in ETH/BTC perpetual contracts (target ETH/BTC exchange rate 0.055)
- Long-term holders:
- Pay attention to dollar-cost averaging opportunities below BTC $65,000 (US stock MicroStrategy average price $65.3K provides psychological support)
- Staking stablecoins (e.g., USDC rates on the ETH chain have risen to 8%+), hedge against potential declines
> ⚠️ Key Reminder: The first 30 minutes after data release is a "noise trading period"; avoid chasing highs and selling lows. Historical data shows that 70% of extreme volatility is partially corrected within an hour. If PCE meets expectations (2.5%), the market focus will shift to **June 7 Non-Farm Payroll data** and the June 12 FOMC meeting.
It is recommended to set real-time alerts for DXY (Dollar Index) on TradingView: Breaking above 105.2 or falling below 104.5 will trigger a trending market in cryptocurrencies.
