Dogecoin dropped from $0.218 to around $0.216 within 24 hours, breaking the short-term support range of $0.2160-$0.225. This area had been tested multiple times before; after the breakdown, it triggered programmed stop-loss orders and a follow-up sell-off. The 30-minute RSI at 37.88 and MACD bearish crossover weakened simultaneously, while the price approached the lower band after the 4-hour Bollinger Bands narrowed, indicating that bears dominate the short-term momentum. Meanwhile, at the daily level, the price is still within a descending wedge and is unlikely to reverse the trend until it breaks $0.2345.
Funding and market sentiment divergence
On-chain data shows that Binance contract whales increased their short positions by 40% week-over-week, but the reserves of spot exchanges did not significantly increase, indicating that large funds are hedging spot risks through futures rather than being fully bearish. The greed index fell from 74 to 71 but remains in the greed zone. The number of active addresses on social media decreased by 8.4% week-over-week, and the inflow of new funds slowed down, resulting in a lack of sustained buying support for prices.
Macroeconomic liquidity squeeze
This week, the U.S. Treasury issuance plan for 2/5/7-year bonds has pushed up real interest rates, leading funds to flow from high-risk assets like Dogecoin to stablecoins and Bitcoin. Bitcoin's dominance rose to 52%, diverting liquidity from meme coins. The frequency of large on-chain transfers of DOGE (over $1 million) decreased by 23% week-over-week, while net inflows to exchanges increased by 12%, indicating a growing willingness among holders to cash out.
Risks and key observation points
If the weekly Bollinger middle band at $0.2107 is lost, it may test the $0.1977-$0.2000 level, which corresponds to the 200-day EMA and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Need to break through $0.2230 with volume and stabilize, the daily MACD histogram turning positive will be a key confirmation signal. If successful, it may challenge the resistance area at $0.2345.
Suggestions
Reduce holdings by 30% at the current price, and reduce another 20% if it rebounds to $0.223. Stop loss and switch positions if it falls below $0.210.
Grid trading in the $0.210-$0.223 range yields a single profit of 1.5%, utilizing volatility to dilute costs
Stake BNB to participate in Launchpool with an annualized return of 12-35%, using the returns to hedge against unrealized losses.
This decline is the result of a threefold resonance of technical breakdown, macroeconomic liquidity tightening, and a retreat in market sentiment. In the short term, caution is needed for the psychological barrier at $0.21, while in the medium to long term, it relies on whether the DOGE ecosystem applications, such as Wormhole cross-chain progress, can reverse fundamental expectations.
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