Daily share

Bitcoin failed to stabilize at 108,000 last night, leading to a structural evolution into a 1-hour downward trend. Ethereum's movement aligns with my expectations, surging above 2700 and reaching a high of 2788. Here, there has actually been a brief divergence between the movements of Ethereum and Bitcoin, with Bitcoin experiencing a correction while Ethereum seeks to break upward. Yesterday, the internal spot short-term group suggested buying Ethereum's ENS, and today it rose to the expected target.

From the current trend, many people expect a deep correction with a bit more strength, but I personally think the possibility is gradually decreasing. Because the overall daily upward trend of Bitcoin has not ended, there will still be at least one 4-hour upward movement, so in June, Bitcoin will have another wave to reach a historical high. If a deeper correction does not occur before that, it will be very difficult to provide it. Instead, there will be shallow corrections or certain range fluctuations.

From this perspective, those holding low-position spot assets, if you do not mind the small fluctuations in the short term, can actually hold them with peace of mind. Many currencies at low positions are in a consolidation phase of upward continuation, rather than another stage of trending decline.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, and this is only for reference.

1H:

1-hour level, Bitcoin broke below 108,000 last night, confirming the end of the previous 1-hour rebound structure from 106,600 near the central 3 buy point, followed by a second sell signal. Here, we should actually look for a 4-hour correction. The overnight pullback did not break below 106,600, so Bitcoin will continue to oscillate around the 1-hour central area. After the oscillation is nearly complete, it may drop down to around 100,000 to finish the 4-hour correction.

Many people are wondering if they can short at high positions and hold on until the 4-hour correction is complete to take profit. In fact, this operation is quite challenging because there are still many people looking bearish at high positions, making it difficult for the market to drop significantly all at once. Moreover, the overall upward trend at the daily level has not ended. To put it bluntly, the current overall direction is still bullish. Even if there are corrections in between, it will rise back again after the decline.

So do you think short positions can hold for long? Absolutely not. Just take a short-term profit and that's it; don't be too greedy and aim for something bigger.

1-hour level, currently inclined to believe that Bitcoin remains in a 1-hour central oscillation, so it is expected that tomorrow there may be a 1-hour rebound, and in the short term, it should still be able to rebound to around 110,000.

15M:

15-minute level, the 1-hour downward structure from yesterday has successfully completed, but whether the 1-hour downward trend has ended is still uncertain. We need to see if the next 15-minute downward movement breaks below 106,769.

After a pullback to 106769 early this morning, during the day, it has been undergoing a 15-minute rebound, having rebounded back above 108800. It can be seen that the short-term trend is not a trending decline; it is actually a central oscillation trend. This up-and-down oscillation provides opportunities for both bulls and bears. However, the speed of switching between bulls and bears must be fast; don’t just focus on 100,000 when looking bearish or immediately expect it to surge above 115,000 when looking bullish. Otherwise, it will be difficult to make money in the short term.

In the short term, it is inclined to see a 15-minute correction tonight or early morning. Watch the strength of the pullback; if it does not break below 107,000, then we are looking at a 1-hour rebound. If it breaks below 107,000 but remains above 106,000, then there will be a 1-hour rebound tomorrow.

ETH

Ethereum is currently breaking upward. This breakout is within my expectations, and last night's article also mentioned watching whether it can push above 2700. Next, we mainly watch whether Ethereum will fall below 2700 again. If it breaks below again, we should at least see a 1-hour correction, focusing on around 2550. If it does not break below 2700 in the short term, it will likely push upward again towards around 2800.

Although Ethereum successfully surged up here, I still lean towards Ethereum continuing to oscillate around the 2400~2800 range until the 4-hour correction structure is nearly complete, after which Ethereum will start the next wave to sprint towards 3000. Once the 3000 mark is broken, we should be able to see 3500. If you unfortunately still hold short positions below 2000, find an opportunity to stop loss as soon as possible. Don't wait until it finally breaks 3000 and regret it.

Trend direction

Weekly level: direction upward, currently undergoing a new weekly upward movement, with an overall target looking above 150,000.

Daily level: direction upward, currently undergoing a daily rebound, with this daily upward target around 120,000~130,000.

4-hour level: direction downward, inclined to undergo a 4-hour correction, but the pullback may not be very strong.

1-hour level: direction upward, expected to undergo another 1-hour rebound to around 110,000.

15-minute level: direction downward, first focus on whether the short-term 15-minute correction breaks below 107,000.