Recently, when I open the market software, I can always see news of TRB's "crazy rise": On May 27 and 29, it recorded consecutive long bullish candles, and the price shot up like a rocket. Many friends who just entered the market couldn't sit still: "Is this the next 'hundredfold coin'?" "Is it too late to chase high now?" But looking at the K-line chart, I found that the 4-hour K-line near the previous high of 58.7 has "rooted a long needle", as if someone poured a bucket of cold water from above — wanting to rise but being pressed down. 1. Technical indicators are "sounding the alarm": short-term revelry and long-term worries
Overbought signals are flashing: The 4-hour RSI has risen to 80.61, just like a person running to their limit gasping for air — rising too fast, the market needs to "take a breather". At this time, blindly chasing highs is like seeing others making money in stocks and rushing to open an account, often leading to buying at the peak.
Volume-price divergence risk: Daily trading volume shrinks after a surge, just like the audience gradually leaving during the climax of a concert — the chasing funds can't keep up, and the price may not hold. Think about it, if everyone in the market is grabbing a vegetable and suddenly no one is asking about it, how will the price move?
Moving average support is like a "spring": Although EMA7, 30, and 120 are in bullish alignment (with short-term moving averages on top), the support levels are at 50 and 42, which are some distance from the current price. It's like climbing stairs where the steps suddenly become higher; if you miss your step, it's easy to fall — breaking below 50 may trigger a larger correction.
2. Market sentiment: A "gamble" full of divergence
Some are shouting "resurrection", while others fear "burial":
In the community, some share screenshots of "buying the dip and earning 3 times", shouting "TRB rise"; but there are also veteran players reminding: "What does Binance's suspension of withdrawals mean? There’s a liquidity problem!" This kind of divergence is like a fight between bulls and bears in a stock forum, and newcomers can't tell who is right.The risk of the giant whale "turning the hand to cloud":
Seeing the news of "large transfers by giant whales" always reminds people of the scenes in movies where the dealer manipulates the market — hundreds of millions of funds poured in, causing prices to suddenly hit the limit or plummet. Ordinary investors are like dancing with elephants; it's difficult to catch the rhythm and easy to get hurt. For example, the "pinning" (a sudden price drop followed by a rebound) on the OKX platform might just be the giant whale "washing the盘", shaking retail investors who follow the trend out of the market.
3. Trading decisions: Don't let emotions make decisions for you
Want to buy? First, ask yourself three questions:
If it drops to 45 after I buy, can I bear the loss? (corresponding to the stop-loss level of 43 at buying point two)
Am I looking to profit from short-term fluctuations, or do I want to hold for the long term? (The current overbought signal is more suited for short-term trading)
Do I understand the actual uses of TRB and the project's progress? (Or am I just following others who are speculating?)
For example: The neighbor's aunt saw others making money in stocks, followed suit, and got stuck, which shows she didn't clarify her risk tolerance.
Want to sell? Remember "eating fish at the mid-section":
The short-term resistance level is at 60, just like the first rest stop when climbing a mountain; it's reasonable to take a break (take profit) here;
But if you greedily wait for 65, in case of a pullback, you might not even be able to hold 55 — just like fishing, if you wait greedily for a big fish, the small fish might get away.
4. The "survival rules" for ordinary people: Don't chase highs, don't be greedy
Avoid liquidity traps: Binance's suspension of withdrawals indicates that TRB cannot be "withdrawn" on some platforms, just like a mall suddenly saying "only buy, no returns"; rushing in at this time is very dangerous.
Use "spare money" to experiment: If you really want to participate, try using no more than 10% of your spending money; if you lose, it won't hurt, and if you win, it's a surprise — just like playing scratch cards; don't treat it as a serious investment.
Focus on "non-technical signals": For example, whether there are new developments from the project party, whether regulatory policies are friendly; these can determine the long-term trend more than K lines. Just like buying stocks, you should look at the company's financial reports, not just the price rise and fall.
Summary: Be a clear-headed outsider in a "crazy" market
The wild fluctuations of TRB are essentially a "high-risk speculative game": some people get rich overnight, while others go bankrupt. For ordinary people, instead of entangled in "should I get in", it’s better to clarify first: Can I accept the outcome of losing all my capital? If the answer is no, it’s best to stay away from this "heartbeat game". After all, the crypto market is never short of opportunities, but it lacks capital that can "survive".
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