XinGPT Research Weekly Report (May 26 to May 30)
Preparing to go out and touch grass tomorrow, so I’ll write the weekly report in advance today while the market hasn't completely gone on vacation. Let’s sort out the recent trading ideas.
My trading framework is a top-down logical chain: first look at macro trends to set direction, then select specific segments to capture thematic opportunities, and finally leave some space for market sentiment and luck.
🔍 Macro Level: Turning Mild
- On a macro level, the trend is improving; Trump's tariffs have been halted by the U.S. International Trade Court, which should lead to some quiet time. Of course, the White House has already appealed, but the tariff dispute indicates that there has been resistance domestically in the U.S.
The focus going forward may be on how inflation is affected by tariffs. Since the expected actual implementation rate is not high, the impact is manageable. The Federal Reserve's May monetary policy also raised inflation expectations.
💸 Sector Themes: The New Narrative of Bitcoin Being 'Included in Public Company Balance Sheets'
- The main positive for Bitcoin last week was that U.S. listed companies like GME and DJT joined MicroStrategy’s playbook, meaning Bitcoin will be included in the assets purchased by public companies. There will likely be more public companies referencing similar strategies going forward.
This is certainly a positive stimulus for the crypto market, but for these 'coin stocks,' it also means a new round of games:
- MicroStrategy has established a leading position due to its first-mover advantage and asset size;
- Newly joined companies may find it hard for investors to accept the premium logic of 'buying my stock equals buying Bitcoin';
- Rather than going through a roundabout way to buy coins via the company, directly investing in Bitcoin ETFs is more efficient.
In the short term, I believe MicroStrategy will also face some impact, and I will recently liquidate MicroStrategy and similar stocks. My previous position was built on the expectation of new Bitcoin highs, which has now reached the milestone for building a position.
For Bitcoin, the long-term holdings of these public companies will further reduce Bitcoin's volatility, and high-risk players will continue to differentiate.
📈 Technical and Capital Aspects: Adjustment Demand in Strength
Bitcoin ETFs still maintained net inflows last week, but the capital intensity is not as high as during the peak weeks.
In terms of trends, BTC has recorded 7 consecutive positive weeks; there is short-term technical pressure for a pullback, but overall it remains strong.
As long as the price stays above the daily EMA20 (approximately $100,500), the structure remains healthy, and there is no rush to turn bearish, but attention should be paid to high-level fluctuations.
