Bitcoin bulls are wildly shouting from $130,000 to $1.5 million. Is it divine prophecy or just harvesting retail investors? Beginner's breakdown!
(As of May 29, 2025, Bitcoin's current price is about $112,000)
Why are they so bold in saying this?
Institutions are pouring money in.
Standard Chartered Bank: says it could rise to $200,000 by the end of the year, reasoning that the U.S. has passed new legislation making Bitcoin legal like gold, and institutional funds will flood in.
Trump's company: quietly bought $2.5 billion in Bitcoin, claiming it is a 'financial freedom weapon' that can counteract bank bullying.
Policy loosening
The U.S. Congress is working on the Bitcoin Reserve Bill, intending to treat confiscated bitcoin as national reserves, which equals 'gold-plating' bitcoin.
Trump says he wants to cut taxes for Bitcoin companies and loosen regulations, which is equivalent to issuing a 'get out of jail free card' for traders.
Technical support
Halving effect: In 2024, Bitcoin mining rewards will be halved. Historically, after each halving, there is a surge in 1-2 years (e.g., after the 2016 halving, it rose by 1200%).
Price model: Some have calculated using mathematical formulas that Bitcoin may push towards $200,000 or even $500,000, linked to gold's market cap.
Where is the risk?
Skeptics pouring cold water
Peter Schiff (gold mogul): says Bitcoin is a scam, its market cap has already surpassed gold, it is bound to crash. Nouriel Roubini (economic vulture): predicts that once regulation tightens, Bitcoin will be halved.
Short-term may plummet
If the Federal Reserve does not engage in quantitative easing (continues to raise interest rates), Bitcoin could drop from $110,000 back to $75,000. When the Bitcoin network is congested, transaction fees can be outrageous, making it unaffordable for ordinary people.
Retail investors harvesting tricks
Some are using 'Bitcoin $1.5 million' to trick people into buying altcoins and contracts, ultimately losing everything.
Bitcoin is rising sharply now, but 80% of coins are held by institutions and large holders, who can dump at any time.
What should ordinary people do?
Want to hold long-term:
Invest a little every month (like 5% of your salary), don't pay attention to short-term fluctuations, treat it as storing 'digital gold'.
Want to make quick money in the short term:
Don't touch leverage! Bitcoin can drop 10% in a day, and liquidations are everywhere. Completely clueless:
Pitfall guide: Stay away from '100x coins' and 'contract wealth', the most practical is to protect your wallet.
Summary:
Bulls say it will rise to $1.5 million, the core logic is 'institutional entry + policy loosening + mathematical model'.
But Bitcoin is essentially a high-risk asset; the higher it rises, the harder it falls.
Ordinary people should either not touch it or only play with spare money; never go all in!
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