On a macro level, the latest released minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicate a slight adjustment in the expected policy path. Data shows that the implied interest rate path based on option prices has slightly declined, suggesting that interest rate cuts may occur 1 to 2 times within the year, each by 25 basis points. Although this trend is not significantly different from expectations during the March FOMC meeting, feedback from the futures market indicates that players seem to have priced in the possibility of up to three rate cuts, reflecting an increasing sensitivity of the market to the downward movement of policy rates.
Despite increasing divergence in market expectations, the minutes emphasized a high level of attention to the inflation path. Most officials believe that the duration of high inflation may exceed previous estimates, while the risk of rising unemployment cannot be ignored.
In stark contrast to the macro policy dynamics, the attitude of the US political sphere towards crypto assets is undergoing subtle changes. Vice President Vance's remarks at the 'Bitcoin 2025' conference sparked heated discussions in the industry. He not only clearly stated his holding of Bitcoin but also pointed out that nearly 50 million Americans currently own it, predicting that this number will double in the short term. More importantly, he views Bitcoin as an important tool to combat inflation and hedge against Washington's policy mistakes, emphasizing its potential in national strategy.
Vance pointed out that in the coming decades, Bitcoin will be one of the strategic assets of the United States, and criticized the current government's regulatory stance, calling on the Bitcoin community to strengthen political participation to avoid missing the window for policy changes. He also revealed that Trump is promoting the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve mechanism with the assistance of AI expert David Sacks, encouraging the tech sector to incorporate crypto assets into future AI policy frameworks.
At the same time, regulatory bodies have also signaled a shift towards neutrality. The US Department of Labor recently revoked the 2022 guidance that prohibited 401(k) accounts from allocating crypto assets, paving the way for financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity to include Bitcoin products in retirement portfolios. Although this does not clearly encourage players to allocate BTC, it effectively removes political resistance, which the market interprets as a structural positive.
ETF data shows that the net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday was 3,974 units, worth $433 million; the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 31,900 units, valued at $84.9 million.
From a market structure perspective, the support zone between $93,000 and $98,000 remains solid, and the stability of chips above $100,000 is good, with no large-scale sell-offs or panic signs yet. Although the short-term turnover rate has slightly declined, it is more driven by short-term players, while early holders tend to remain cautious.
Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of consolidation and fluctuation, and there is a possibility of testing the 5-week moving average this week. However, it still possesses upward momentum in the medium to long term, and after the adjustment period ends, it may welcome a new round of upward breakthroughs.
