Despite the Trump Group announcing a $2.5 billion Bitcoin purchase plan, the market reaction has been surprisingly restrained. Bitcoin has failed to break past its previous high, and Ethereum is also blocked at recent highs, highlighting that the current market is trapped in a liquidity game stalemate.
Deep confrontation between long and short forces.
Every technical pullback has been supported by incremental funding, showing solid medium- to long-term allocation demand.
Significant sell orders continue to suppress key resistance levels, forming a strong resistance zone at 111700-110100.
The low-level accumulation of long contracts has reached an open interest of $3.42 billion, while there are institutional buy orders defending the support zone of 107600-106500.
Market Operation Character Analysis
The phenomenon implies a logical technical signal that is favorable, dulling the market, which has partially priced in policy expectations. RSI has been overbought for three consecutive weeks, with a narrow oscillation forming a liquidity vacuum and the Bollinger Bands narrowing to a 5% amplitude. Both longs and shorts are being hunted, with stop-loss orders and futures funding rates turning negative.
Breakthrough Path Simulation
The current market is on the eve of a directional breakthrough, with two key nodes to watch.
If the risk of long liquidation continues without breaking 111700, highly leveraged longs may be forced to liquidate, triggering a downward spiral.
If shorts effectively hold above 110100, it will trigger short covering, boosting liquidity-driven market movements.
Professional advice: use a Gamma-neutral strategy in the 107,600-110,100 range, and follow the trend after breaking key levels. Be cautious of price fluctuations caused by sudden spikes in implied volatility, as the options market has shown abnormal accumulation of December 140,000 call options.
The market is always seeking certainty amidst uncertainty—currently, the deadlock essentially stems from the divergence in institutional bets on the sustainability of spot ETF inflows. A breakthrough signal may appear after the options expiration on Friday.
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