Ethereum#ETH faces unprecedented macro pressure and structural risks. From global economic policy trends and capital flows in financial markets to the intertwined influence of regulation and geopolitical risks, Ethereum is likely to face an accelerated plunge and fall below key psychological prices in the coming weeks.
1. The US "anti-inflation dilemma": the hawkish interest rate policy in June may exceed expectations
The U.S. PCE (personal consumption expenditures) for May will be released this Friday (May 31st). According to market estimates, the core PCE year-on-year growth rate may stagnate above 3.5% again, far higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
This means that even though the tone of the June FOMC meeting statement remains "wait-and-see", in reality, the market's expectations for a rate cut in the second half of 2025 have receded significantly. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has fallen below 30%. This will lead to a comprehensive repricing of risk assets, with the crypto market being the first to be affected.
As a high-Beta technology asset, Ethereum's future value discount model will suffer a severe blow and its price may face a valuation collapse if the expectation of interest rate cuts disappears completely.
2. Asian capital retreat: China's economy weakens + Japan enters a cycle of interest rate hikes
Asian markets have been turbulent again in recent days. China's latest industrial profits in May fell 14.2% year-on-year, far below expectations, indicating that inventory clearance pressure on the corporate side has worsened again. The RMB exchange rate is also close to the low of 7.35, and capital outflow pressure has surged.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan hinted that it would further raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet in June. Yen shorts were forced to close their positions and arbitrage funds withdrew from the Asian market, creating an overall crowding-out effect on risky assets.
According to CryptoQuant data, the outflow of stablecoin funds from exchanges in the Asian time zone has been negative for six consecutive days, and the on-chain capital chain has continued to shrink, indicating that Ethereum's actual buying momentum is rapidly weakening.
3. Political turmoil in Europe intensifies: election uncertainty + Trump's trade war rhetoric
Europe is about to hold European Parliament elections in June, and support for far-right parties has surged, posing potential challenges to regional integration and financial stability. Just yesterday, US President Trump reiterated that if the EU does not cancel the "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)" and digital tax, the United States will impose a 30% tariff on European cars from mid-June.
This move may trigger a new round of transatlantic trade war and cause a surge in risk aversion in the market. According to Skew data, the Put/Call ratio in the ETH options market has risen to 1.4, the highest this year, indicating that institutional investors are extremely pessimistic about the market outlook.
4. On-chain technology and network fundamentals weaken simultaneously
Ethereum's average daily fee income fell 42% from April, reflecting a significant drop in network activity.
User activity of L2 solutions (such as Arbitrum and Optimism) has declined for three consecutive weeks, and funds are being transferred to stablecoins and Bitcoin on a large scale.
The proportion of ETH transferred from whale addresses to CEX has increased by 18% in the past 72 hours, indicating that potential selling pressure is accumulating.
5. Technical analysis: Breaking through the triangle convergence support, a bearish pattern is formed
The price of Ethereum recently fell below the lower edge of the daily convergence triangle (the previous support was approximately in the 2450-2500 range), confirming a bearish turn and breaking the previous rebound low. The structural bearish trend means that if there is no clear positive news or capital replenishment in the future, prices may quickly fall to the bottom range of last year's bear market.
This weekend and early June will be major watershed moments for Ethereum’s trend. When the global capital chain is tightening across the board, policy risks are rising, and technical aspects and on-chain activities are weakening simultaneously, what the market is most worried about is not short-term fluctuations, but the "break" of confidence! Falling below the key psychological range is no longer a black swan, but a predictable avalanche.$ETH 