BTC Evening Market Update (May 28, 2025)
1. Market Outlook
Currently, BTC shows a 4-hour top divergence pattern within a 6-hour timeframe, but the MACD zero line support remains strong, with prices continuing to oscillate narrowly around $109,000. There is a trend of market funds shifting towards altcoins, and some major players may be adjusting their positions based on the news following the BTC conference. In the short term, caution is needed regarding the profit-taking pressure from major players after the event concludes.
2. Technical Highlights
4-hour top divergence: Prices repeatedly tested $109,000 at high levels without breaking through, and the KDJ and RSI indicators signal a need for overbought correction. However, the MACD is still near the zero line, and a clear downward trend has not yet formed.
On-chain Data: BTC network capital inflow has recently stagnated, and the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remains high, indicating short-term profit accumulation. Attention should be paid to changes in fund flow.
Volume and Price Matching: Current trading volume has shrunk by about 15% compared to the previous day, and price fluctuations have narrowed, indicating that the contest between bulls and bears has entered a wait-and-see phase. A breakout will require external catalyst factors.
3. Key Support and Resistance
Support Levels: 106800 → 105000 → 102700
Resistance Levels: 109000 → 110000 → 120000
4. Risk Warning
Divergence Repair Risk: If the 4-hour divergence cannot be digested through sideways movement, it may trigger a correction of 5%-8%;
Capital Diversion Impact: Short-term rallies in altcoins may divert funds from the market, weakening the sustainability of BTC's upward movement;
Event-Driven Volatility: Following the BTC conference, there will be a news vacuum period. Caution is advised regarding potential short-term fluctuations caused by major players offloading due to favorable news;
Leverage Risk: The current overall long-short ratio is 1.08, with bulls in the majority but a high concentration of positions, so extreme market conditions may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
