In the last two days, everyone has seen the trend of BTC, which has temporarily stalled its rise. After breaking the historical high of 111,980 on the 23rd of this month, there has been no new high action, and after simple hovering at a high level, it experienced a waterfall movement. Although there was a rebound after the drop, the entire process did not continue, but rather formed a rebound that lured in long positions during a downward trend. Two arc-shaped tops were formed around 4 PM on the 26th and again yesterday on the 28th, causing a drop. The entire upward movement lacks continuous buying pressure to support the price.
In fact, the current trend of Bitcoin does not align with the data and technical patterns that everyone sees; theoretically, it should continue to surge significantly. First, on the daily chart, the entire bullish channel path is clear, with the MA moving averages extending upward at a 45-degree angle. From the perspective of news data, the bullish sentiment is still filled with significant accumulation, poised to act. Major institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin. On the 22nd, Trump also hosted the top 220 holders of TRUMP coins, publicly expressing support for the development of Bitcoin. Recent information shows that the Old Tech Media Group (DJT.O) announced a Bitcoin funding transaction worth about $2.5 billion, planning to use the raised funds to establish Bitcoin reserves.
At the same time, various states in the U.S. are passing Bitcoin reserve laws and federal stablecoin laws, etc. All actions indicate that this industry is expected to continue to see significant growth, with Bitcoin leading the charge. Considering the current situation and time node, the medal believes that the bull market is far from over.
However, it must be said that we still need to consider the true performance of Bitcoin at this moment, as this market indeed exhibits a controlled trend. It is necessary to consider the psychology of the main players; with so much news gathering and an obvious bullish atmosphere, it is easy to accumulate a large number of long contracts. If the price rises due to the release of bullish news, then more long positions will quickly flood in, making it difficult to shake off low-position long contracts later, which puts pressure on future rises. Thus, if the price gathers long positions now and then experiences a significant pullback, leading to a wave of market panic, guiding the market to short at low positions, the medal believes it would rather be more beneficial for a rapid rise in the later stages, allowing for a quick escape.
From a technical perspective, if the technical route predicted by the medal is adopted, the price is expected to find support around 103,000, as it oscillated for 8 trading days before climbing to a new high, having solid average position holdings, and also coinciding with the daily MA30 support level. It is predicted that the price can stabilize above the 100,000 mark, and any unexpected drop below 100,000 will be quickly reclaimed. Therefore, based on the current speculation, it is recommended to pause long-term positions in long orders and reduce spot trading positions. Wait for a price pullback, and at the same time, consider making small leveraged short positions.
Of course, if the price does not follow the technical route predicted by the medal, but instead shows a proactive continuous buying action (rather than a rapid surge with large bullish candles), after breaking through 111,000, positions can be added for long orders and spot trading, and new highs are bound to come.
$BTC
