I believe many people will believe that buying a good asset and holding it, like Bitcoin, will ultimately lead to wealth; this is called successful value investment.
But whether something has value is unknown until it is proven.
So why would you be willing to buy? Most likely it’s because more people are talking about it, and you’ve heard it enough times, so you believe it.
Humans have a very low immunity to the temptation of profit.
Just like many bloggers told you before, buy index funds and earn ten times in ten years.
In fact, if you bought a few years ago, you would still be in the red now.
If you say that value investment is still losing money, they’ll say you need to hold long-term; look at Warren Buffett—he holds for 40 years.
Why do such profitable companies not rise? We definitely cannot see the reasons.
But smart money has already seen through this. Many people are not qualified for value investment because we cannot understand or see what others can.
Long-term holders have logic behind their actions; both selling and buying are supported by logic.
Most people buy in just because they heard someone say this is great; buying and holding isn’t a problem, and they’ll definitely make money.
Take Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan as examples; they are certainly value-type companies, but if you bought their stocks five years ago, you would still be at a loss.
Take Tencent as an example; it’s so cheap now, but why isn’t it rising? They’re not picking up cheap chips, so there must be a reason.
If one day there is a big surge, it must be because this unfavorable factor has been eliminated.
However, many people don’t understand the reasons; they just feel that others haven’t seen the gold, but they have seen it, so they buy, buy, buy, and then talk about value investment. They buy and hold.
Such people will definitely be harvested by the market.
At that time, I was full of confidence; if it kept dropping, holding onto Tencent would be quite painful, right?
Some may doubt that this is market manipulation, but this is conspiracy theory; those who believe in conspiracy theories are not suitable for investing.
Their fundamental worldview is immature; no matter how many methodologies they learn, it’s useless.
Those who are leveraged might say that buying 10 years ago would have made a fortune.
This is also the biggest contradiction in our investments.
Rich people don’t lack time; they can afford to wait.
People without money have time, but those without money are eager to make money and can't afford to wait.
Otherwise, why would so many people not buy Bitcoin? They could just buy and wait. That’s because after waiting four years for a bull market, it’s a rare opportunity to get rich, and not wanting to miss out means you could earn 3-5 times.
The whole set of value investment logic is infinitely debatable. It is indeed correct.
It’s just like the extremely correct principles that teach you how to make money; they are all right.
However, there is a huge bug in this; it is only suitable for a few wealthy people.
That’s why I always say that most people are not qualified to play the stock market.
What do you mean by buying index funds and stocks like Tencent and Alibaba? First, check if you have money in your pocket.
If you don’t have money, it’s impossible to earn anything from the traditional market.
So in the cryptocurrency circle, many people also divide investments into value and non-value investments.
It is suitable for everyone in the world to play, but currently, only 300 million people are involved. Imagine how much this market can grow in the future.
When I entered the cryptocurrency circle, I also looked at what were value coins, garbage coins, and air coins. That was what others told me.
I entered this circle, and everyone said the same thing. So I believed it.
But when Dogecoin surged by 400 times, I started to lose faith.
In this cryptocurrency circle, there is no such thing as value coins or garbage coins, only coins that make money and coins that lose money.
So in the cryptocurrency circle, it’s important to remove your obsessions and not view coins through colored lenses.
Recently, WLD has risen significantly; it is indeed an air coin, but it can make people money.
The cryptocurrency market is a game market, where there are various ways to make money; in the past, issuing coins was the most profitable.
Issue a coin, sell a wave, and then leave after harvesting everyone, leaving them all in the lurch.
At first, it was indeed like this, but there is no after-sales service in this industry; it doesn't last long.
The top people in this circle are also calculative, thinking that this way won't last long. Issuing coins is so hard to profit from, so forget it—it's better to trade coins myself.
Currently, the most profitable thing is being a market maker; trading coins as a market maker also relies on traffic logic, which coins have concepts and narratives that are popular among coin enthusiasts.
Heat brings traffic, and traffic brings conversion. This conversion is the influx of real money.
So do market makers make money from spot trading? Of course not; the big players make money primarily through contracts.
Contracts can be leveraged, and when market makers control most of the chips, the ups and downs of contracts are dictated by them.
From the perspective of a market maker, when you speculate, it’s very hard to buy coins that don’t have open contracts.
Why are inscriptions so powerful, erupting so rapidly? It’s because this method of issuing coins aligns with the public sentiment in the cryptocurrency circle, where everyone is scared of being taken advantage of.
The rise of inscriptions has given many people hope, and people are willing to come and play. Most people do not care about air coins and value coins.
Why does it drop so fast? It’s because everyone is scared; everyone knows that inscriptions are air, and liquidity is insufficient. So when something goes wrong, they immediately flee.
As long as someone pulls the market, with 1 billion coming in, it will be driven up immediately, and another batch of people will rush in.
Those who quickly enter and exit won’t believe in the value investment of inscriptions. What they want is to make money.
So making money in the cryptocurrency circle is about looking at two sets of logic: one is suitable for most people to accumulate coins, particularly Bitcoin. But during a bull market, you must also sell. Don’t fear selling too early; if you don’t sell in a bull market and wait for the next bull market, you will suffer tremendously during a bear market. Of course, if you have money, the rises and falls of coins won’t affect you, that’s a different story. You can hold for 10 years without issue, which is why I say that rich people are suitable for value investment.
Another way is to buy low and sell high, chasing whatever is hot, quick to enter and exit. Such people understand human nature very well and may restrain their greed. There are indeed people in the market who play this well, but such non-standard methodologies and strategies change rapidly and must adapt to the market, yet a person’s character does not change; the way they play is fundamentally a product of their character, which many people find hard to learn.
I rarely speculate; I mainly accumulate coins and engage in risk-free arbitrage, focusing intensely on my own little piece of land, which makes it hard to lose money—it's more about earning less or more.
In the cryptocurrency circle, those who lose money are often those who lack logic, who want to play everything; they buy whatever others say is good. If someone says contracts are good, they play contracts. They believe someone can make them fly 100 times in a year. Anyone with their own set of logic is unlikely to lose money.
Finally, don’t be swayed by value investment; there is nothing in this market that you can pick up cheaply. There are too many smart people in the market; if a piece of gold falls on the road, passersby will see it but not pick it up. When you see it and pick it up, you might find it’s just a pile of manure.
I’m done writing, keep it up! I am Xiao Qi, sincerely wishing you wealth in the cryptocurrency circle as an experienced investor.
