When BTC hits a historical high, and ETH rises over 40% in a month, the crypto market reignites 'bull market expectations.' On-chain capital activity rebounds, exchange heat clearly rises, and macro signals also show a favorable trend.
But when you open your wallet, oh my, how are you still losing money?
BTC price has broken through the $110,000 mark, setting a historical high; ETH has risen over 45% in the past month. In this round of emotional warming, funds and traffic are concentrated in mainstream assets. On the macro level, the easing of US-China trade and the global rise in risk appetite provide a good upward channel for the entire crypto market.
However, against this backdrop of good news, the Altcoin sector is overall sluggish. Most altcoins not only haven't risen but have even continued to pull back. The heat of BTC and ETH masks the fact that the entire market is undergoing some directional transformation: altcoins are not without a market, but are being consciously 'excluded' from funding and users.
Is the bull market really here?
Tariff easing and rising risk appetite.
The upward trend of mainstream coins continues.
Regulatory expectations are clearer: BTC and ETH have strong compliance attributes, and the classifications by the US CFTC and SEC are gradually becoming clearer.
Better liquidity: large institutions (such as BlackRock, Fidelity) continue to absorb BTC through spot products or custody services.
Narratives are more complete: BTCFi and Ethereum L2 ecosystems have recently become the center of a new round of topics.
This gives mainstream coins an excessive premium in the new round of market, while altcoins fall into the margins of funding.
The market bull market has indeed returned, but it seems to only belong to Bitcoin, not to altcoins.
Why haven't altcoins kept up?
The cycle of chasing highs and selling lows has passed.
During the 2021 bull market, a large number of retail investors entered due to FOMO, blindly chasing various new coin projects, and ultimately most were deeply trapped in the periodic collapse of altcoins. According to data analysis agency Messari, by the end of 2022, over 73% of non-mainstream token investors were in a state of loss after holding for 6 months.
After the market rotation, by 2025, investors generally form a more cautious trading mentality:
More emphasis on the real number of users and on-chain activity of the project.
Prefer projects with mechanism innovation, clear airdrop mechanisms, and ecological support.
No longer easily 'follow orders' or blindly go all in.
Data from Dune on-chain interactions shows that the median participation (7-day active addresses) of Altcoin projects after launch has dropped from over 13,000 in 2021 to currently less than 2,800, indicating a visible cooling of community enthusiasm.
Users are not avoiding the market; they are choosing to wait more 'smartly.'
The trust mechanism of altcoins is collapsing:
Users no longer trust the project teams: most projects are only active in the initial 30 days after launch, then experience liquidity exhaustion.
Market maker interest has declined: MM strategy firms are concentrating resources on BTC, ETH, and compliant stablecoins, with altcoin trading pairs delisted by multiple exchanges.
A more serious problem is that the lack of consensus leads to the 'hollowing out' of the community: project teams are left with only operational accounts, with no real community; retail investors are flowing into point systems, airdrop hunter channels, and even AI mining.
This has also led to a new phenomenon—altcoins are no longer about 'dumb speculation' but 'speed speculation': no one believes in long-term, everyone is competing for short-term liquidity.
The reason altcoins don't rise is not that no one cares about them, but that there is no longer a reason to believe in them. When users' speculation only revolves around 'running fast,' the entire altcoin ecosystem loses its basic trust and liquidity support structure.
Is there still an opportunity for altcoins?
It does not depend on the market but on whether they can 'self-renew.'
In the past, many projects disappeared in the bear market and 'revived' at the beginning of the bull market: changing a logo, updating a roadmap, adding some AI keywords, and starting to tell stories again. But users in 2025 are no longer easily deceived by 'new wine in old bottles.'
Compared to mere 'skin-changing,' truly competitive projects have chosen to 'soul-change': reconstructing the Token economic model, introducing fairer airdrop mechanisms, and even guiding community co-governance through DAO, transforming users from speculators to ecological builders, while achieving sustained activity and liquidity through an extremely simple user experience and deep binding with on-chain native traffic.
The key to breaking through is not how trendy the packaging is, but how new the mechanisms are, how genuine the emotions are, and how steady the rhythm is.
What do retail investors really need? Narrative? Practicality? Or pure speculation? In 2021, retail investors chased narratives and imagined spaces. By 2025, retail investors are more concerned about 'Can I test at low cost?', 'Can I sell at any time?', 'Am I being treated as a competitor by the project team or KOLs?'
No need for 'grand visions,' what is needed is clear expectation management and quick feedback.
This also means that project teams must redesign user participation paths:
The mechanism binding tasks, points, and NFTs should not just play 'incentives,' but should incorporate 'exit costs' into the design.
No longer pursuing explosive user numbers, but rather establishing a small and elite 'core loyalty pool';
Make users feel like they are not 'being designed' but are 'participating.'
If the previous traffic strategy was 'overwhelming,' the current strategy is more like 'igniting sparks': letting early believers participate, earn money, and generate real transactions and content, which can lead to virality and organic spread.
Altcoins have not disappeared; they have just arrived at the doorstep of a reshuffle.
Projects that lack mechanism innovation, community participation, and fantasize about increasing tenfold by mere promotion are destined to sink in this cycle. However, projects that truly understand changes in user behavior, reconstruct incentive structures, and can co-exist and win with the community still have a chance to break through in a 'local bull market.'
Whoever can stabilize people's hearts will survive longer.
