Some quick thoughts on the acquisition vehicle meta:

It seems like we've found the 2025 equivalent of GBTC.

I have no idea if these vehicles will achieve that level of scale and destructive potential, but make no mistake, this is leverage getting injected into the system.

To spell out the risk, it's that these acquisition vehicles accumulate a lot of crypto at much worse terms than Saylor and eventually become forced sellers.

I'm not sure people truly understand how much of a wizard Michael Saylor is.

Saylor financed the majority of his BTC buys with converts, so there's plenty of equity risk for investors but little risk of liquidation.

The first issuance he did for $650M back in 2025 paid a 0.75% coupon for what is essentially an unsecured loan.

These new acquisition corps won't get terms Saylor's terms, and they almost certainly won't be able to raise the capital unsecured.

The most likely scenario is that the terms are much worse, there's real liquidation risk, but investors will FOMO in because no one reads the fine print and it worked for Saylor.

It's an extremely reflexive feedback loop that if it gets large enough, ends in a 2022 like sell off.

I am hopeful that if enough people call this out we can avoid a grey swan scenario, but I've worked in crypto long enough not to hold my breath.