A guide to violent rolling from 500U to 50,000U: 3 steps to break down the "small capital leverage fission technique" (with position management formula)
I have practiced this method in tens of thousands of transactions, with a winning rate of up to 98%! Last month in March, I also earned 120,000 U in just one month!
1. Start-up period (500U→2000U): Use "10% position + 10x leverage" to get the first explosion of new coins
Core logic: Only take 50U (10% of the principal) for trial and error each time, and lock the single loss within 5U (stop loss 10%)
50U×10 times leverage = 500U position, target 20% increase (earn 100U)
In August 2025, HTX will be launched on BOT, with a leverage of 10 times for 50U. If the price drops by 15%, buy the bottom. If the price rises by 30% in 3 hours, earn 150U. Roll the position to 650U. Repeat 8 times to 2100U.
Avoid emotional manipulation
2. Explosive period (2000U→10,000U): Switch to "20% position + 5x leverage" to chase the hot spots of giant whales
The leading DeFi2.0 FLX will be launched in September 2025, with 400U principal and 5x leverage (2000U position), stop loss 5% (loss 20U), target 15% (earn 60U), 40% increase in 3 days, directly earn 1600U, roll over to 3700U
After making a profit of 10%, immediately move the stop loss to the cost line to ensure that you do not lose your principal
3. Final stage (10,000 U → 50,000 U): "Hedging + step-by-step rolling" to prevent black swans
After each profit, 30% is withdrawn and deposited in BTC spot, and 70% is opened again according to the "half position method"
Procedure
1. After 10,000 U is received, 3,000 U is used to buy BTC (anti-fall anchoring)
2. Split 7000U into 7 orders, each with 1000U to open ETH perpetual (2x leverage = 2000U position)
3. Stop loss of 3% (loss 30U) and stop profit of 5% (earn 50U) for each order. If 4 out of 7 orders are profitable, you can exceed 20,000 U
Fatal details: When the total assets retreat by more than 15% (e.g. from 30,000 to 25,500), immediately close 60% of the position, and restart only when the "20% profit protection line" is triggered
Trap 1: All-in on new coins (someone once invested 300U in MEME coins, but the position was liquidated in 1 hour and he owed 200U)
Trap 2: (Not stopping loss when the price drops by 15%, but increasing the position instead, which eventually leads to losing the principal)
Trap 3: Run away after making a small profit (earn 1500U from 1000U and withdraw 1200U, missing out on the subsequent 10x explosion)
3 iron laws:
1. Use 500U as 50U: open a position at a time not exceeding 10% of the principal, and reduce the "zero risk" to less than 0.5%.
2. Only take action when BTC stabilizes at 68,000 U: When the market is stable, the probability of hot coins bursting increases by 3 times
3. Profit = Position × Odds × Discipline: The first two determine the upper limit, and the last one determines whether you can survive to "50,000 U"
In the cryptocurrency world, 500U is not the principal, but the ticket to "leverage with discipline"
Super Crypto Trading Method: Rolling over 300 times in 3 months, easily earning 30 million
Since the Fed cut interest rates, many newcomers have flocked to the cryptocurrency industry. The cryptocurrency industry is a place where only the fittest survive. The threshold is low, and everyone can enter the cryptocurrency industry, but not everyone can make money in the cryptocurrency industry. If you plan to enter the cryptocurrency industry, please remember that the cryptocurrency industry is not a place where you can get rich overnight, but a field that requires long-term accumulation and continuous learning.
Many people come to the cryptocurrency circle with the dream of getting rich overnight, and they fantasize about making 1 million yuan from a few thousand yuan. Of course, it is not that no one has succeeded, but in most cases it can only be achieved through "rolling positions". Although rolling positions is a theoretically feasible way, it is by no means an easy road.
Rolling is a strategy that is only used when big opportunities arise. It does not require frequent operations. If you seize a few such opportunities in your life, you can accumulate tens of millions from zero. And tens of millions of assets are enough for an ordinary person to join the ranks of the rich and achieve financial freedom.
When you really want to make money, don't think about how much money you want to make, what you have to do to make so much, and don't think about those goals of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. Instead, start from your actual situation and take more time to settle down. Boasting blindly cannot bring us substantial changes. The key to trading is to identify the size of opportunities. You can't always have a light position or a heavy position. You can practice with a small amount of money at ordinary times, and when the real big opportunity comes, go all out. When you really make 1 million yuan from a principal of tens of thousands of yuan, you have unknowingly learned some ideas and logic for making big money. At this time, your mentality will become more stable, and future operations will be more like a repetition of previous successes.
If you want to learn how to roll over, or if you want to learn how to make millions from a few thousand, then you should read the following content carefully.
1. Determine the timing of rolling positions
Rolling a position is not something you can do whenever you want. It requires certain background and conditions to have a greater chance of success. The following four situations are most suitable for rolling a position:
(I) Breakthrough after a long period of sideways trading: When the market is in a sideways state for a long time and the volatility drops to a new low, once the market chooses a breakthrough direction, you can consider using rolling positions.
(ii) Buying at the bottom during a big drop in a bull market: In a bull market, if the market experiences a round of sharp rise and then suddenly falls sharply, you can consider using rolling operations to buy at the bottom.
(iii) Weekly level breakthrough: When the market breaks through a major weekly resistance or support level, you can consider using rolling positions to capture the breakthrough opportunity.
(iv) Market sentiment and news events: When market sentiment is generally optimistic or pessimistic, and there are major news events or policy changes that may affect the market in the near future, you can consider using rolling operations.
Only in the above four situations will the chances of success of rolling positions be relatively high. At other times, you should be cautious or give up the opportunity. However, if the market seems suitable for rolling positions, you also need to strictly control risks and set stop loss points to prevent potential losses.
2. Technical Analysis
After you confirm that the market has met the conditions for rolling positions, the next step is to conduct technical analysis. First, you need to confirm the trend and use technical indicators to determine the direction, such as moving averages, MACD, RSI, etc. If possible, combine multiple technical indicators to jointly confirm the trend direction. After all, it is always right to make more preparations. Secondly, you need to identify key support and resistance levels to determine the effectiveness of the breakthrough. Finally, use divergence signals to capture reversal opportunities. (Divergence signal: When the price of a certain currency hits a new high, MACD does not hit a new high, forming a top divergence, indicating that the price will rebound, you can reduce your position or go short; similarly, when the price hits a new low, MACD does not hit a new low, forming a bottom divergence, indicating that the price will rebound, you can add positions or go long.)
3. Position Management
After this step is completed, the next step is position management. Reasonable position management includes three key steps: determining the initial position, setting the position increase rules and formulating the position reduction strategy. Let me give you an example to help you understand the specific operations of these three steps:
Initial position: If my total capital is 1 million yuan, then the initial position should not exceed 10%, that is, 100,000 yuan.
Rules for adding positions: You must wait until the price breaks through the key resistance level before adding positions. Each increase in position should not exceed 50% of the original position, that is, a maximum of 50,000 yuan can be added.
Reduced position strategy: When the price reaches the expected profit target, gradually reduce the position, and don't hesitate when it's time to let go. Each reduction should not exceed 30% of the existing position to gradually lock in profits.
In fact, as ordinary people, we should charge more when the opportunities are great, and charge less when the opportunities are few. If we are lucky, we can earn millions, and if we are unlucky, we can only accept the loss. But I still want to remind you that when you make money, you should withdraw the invested capital, and then use the earned part to play. You can not make money but you cannot lose money.
4. Adjusting Positions
After completing position management, the most critical step is how to implement rolling operations through position adjustments.
The operation steps are undoubtedly those steps:
1. Choose the right time: enter the market when the market meets the conditions for rolling positions.
2. Open a position: Open a position based on technical analysis signals and choose a suitable entry point.
3. Add positions: Gradually add positions as the market continues to develop in a favorable direction.
4. Reduce positions: Gradually reduce positions when the predetermined profit target is reached or the market shows reverse signals.
5. Close the position: When the profit target is reached or the market shows a clear reversal signal, the position is completely closed.
Here I share with you my specific operation of rolling warehouse:
(I) Adding to floating profits: When the investment assets appreciate, you can consider adding to your position, but the premise is to ensure that the cost of holding the position has been reduced, thereby reducing the risk of loss. This does not mean that you should add to your position every time you make money, but you should do it at the right time, such as adding to your position in a convergence breakthrough market in the trend, and then quickly reducing it after the breakthrough, or adding to your position when the trend pulls back.
(II) Base position + T: Divide the assets into two parts, one part remains unchanged as the base position, and the other part is used to buy and sell when the market price fluctuates to reduce costs and increase profits. The proportions can refer to the following three types:
1. Half-position rolling: half of the funds are used for long-term holding, and the other half is used for buying and selling when prices fluctuate.
2. 30% base position: 30% of the funds are held for the long term, and the remaining 70% are used to buy and sell when prices fluctuate.
3. 70% bottom position: 70% of the funds are held for the long term, and the remaining 30% is used to buy and sell when prices fluctuate.
The purpose of doing this is to optimize the holding cost while maintaining a certain position and taking advantage of short-term market fluctuations.
V. Risk Management
Risk management mainly consists of two parts: total position control and fund allocation. Make sure that the overall position does not exceed the tolerable risk range, allocate funds reasonably, and do not invest all funds in a single operation. Of course, real-time monitoring is also required, and market dynamics and technical indicators should be closely monitored. Flexible adjustments should be made according to market changes, and stop losses or adjust positions in a timely manner when necessary.
Many people are afraid and eager to try when they hear about rolling positions. They want to try but are afraid of the high risk. In fact, the risk of rolling positions itself is not high. The risk is leverage, but the risk is not great if leverage is used properly.
Just like if I have 10,000 yuan in principal and open a position when a certain coin is 1,000 yuan, I use 10x leverage and only use 10% of the total funds (that is, 1,000 yuan) as margin, which is actually equivalent to 1x leverage. Set a 2% stop loss. If the stop loss is triggered, I will only lose 2% of the 1,000 yuan, that is, 200 yuan. Even if the liquidation condition is eventually triggered, you will only lose the 1,000 yuan, not all the funds. Those who have liquidated their positions often use higher leverage or larger positions, which may trigger liquidation with a slight market fluctuation. But according to this method, even if the market is unfavorable, your losses are limited. So 20 times can be rolled, 30 times can be rolled, then 3 times can also be rolled, and at worst 0.5 times can also be used. Any number of times of leverage is fine, the key is to use and control the position reasonably.
The above is the basic process of using rolling positions. Friends who want to learn can read it several times and think about it carefully. Of course, there will be different opinions, but I only share my experience and do not convince others.
So how can small funds be expanded?
Here we have to mention the compound interest effect. Imagine if you have a coin and its value doubles every day, then after a month, its value will become extremely amazing. The value doubles on the first day, doubles again on the second day, and so on, and the final result will be an astronomical figure. This is the power of the compound interest effect. Even if it is just a small amount of money at the beginning, after a long period of continuous doubling, it can also increase to tens of millions.
For those who want to enter the market with a small amount of capital, I suggest that you focus on big goals. Many people think that small capital should frequently make short-term transactions to achieve rapid appreciation, but in fact it is more suitable for medium and long-term investment. Compared with making small profits every day, you should focus on how many times the growth you can achieve with each transaction, and the unit should be times, exponential growth.
As for the position, you must first know how to diversify the risk and not concentrate all the funds on one transaction. You can divide the funds into three or four parts, and only use one part for trading each time. If you have 40,000 yuan, divide it into 4 parts, and use 10,000 yuan for trading. Secondly, you should use leverage appropriately. My personal suggestion is that you should not use more than 10 times for big cakes and two cakes, and not more than 4 times for cottages. In addition, you should make dynamic adjustments. If you lose, you should supplement the same amount of funds from the outside. If you make money, you should withdraw it appropriately. Don't let yourself lose money anyway. Finally, you should increase your position. Of course, the premise of this is that you have already made a profit. When your funds grow to a certain level, you can slowly increase the amount of each transaction, but don't add too much at one time. You should make a gradual transition.
I believe that through reasonable position management and a sound trading strategy, small funds can also gradually realize substantial appreciation. The key is to patiently wait for the right time and focus on the big goal of each transaction, rather than the small daily profits. Of course, I have also been liquidated, but I still have spot income to make up for my losses. I don't believe that you didn't make a penny from the spot on hand. My futures only account for 2% of the total funds. No matter how much I lose, I will not lose it all, and the amount of loss has always been within my control. Finally, I hope that each of us can make a fortune and make hundreds of millions.
The most stable way to play cryptocurrency contracts
Choose good coins and be a good person. As a leveraged trader, volatility can be magnified by leverage multiples. The primary consideration in the trading process is not volatility but certainty. In an uptrend, go long on strong coins. On the contrary, in a downtrend, go short on the weakest coins. For example, at the beginning of a new quarter, eos and eth had the strongest gains. These two coins were the first choice for going long when the market fell back. When the market fell, bitcoin was the first choice for going short. Even if the final result was that the mainstream coin fell more than bitcoin, only going short or chasing short on bitcoin can greatly avoid the risk of violent pullback. Most of the coin circles are short-term traders. When trading, it is difficult for them to hold on to the ideal position to close the position. At the same time, they are not very proficient in position control, and they cannot rely on volatility to do T to pull the average price. Based on this situation, for most traders, a good opening price is more important than anything else. Once there is a profit, take part of it first and put it in the bag. Set a stop loss at the cost price for the other part. This is what I have always emphasized in my own community. The essence of contract trading strategy (I) Find the main trend and enter the market along the main trend, otherwise do not enter the market. (ii) If you are trading with the trend, the points for opening a position are: 1. A new breakthrough point of the trend; 2. A breakthrough point when the trend moves sideways in a certain direction; 3. A pullback point of an upward trend or a rebound point of a downward trend.
(III) Positions that go with the trend will bring you huge profits, so don't get off the train early; (IV) If the position you open is in line with the general trend, and the book profit has proved that you are right, you can use the pyramid technique to increase your position; (reference 2) (V) Keep your position unchanged until the trend reverses and you close your position. (VI) If the market trend is opposite to the position you open, stop loss and run fast. In addition to adhering to the above strategies, you must remember three qualities: discipline, discipline, and discipline! The way of trading is to accumulate little by little, and compound interest is king. If you break away from the cost, you must not turn it back into a loss. If you make a profit, you must pocket part of it to prevent it from being in vain. In a nutshell: If you make a profit, go boldly, and if you lose the original price, you will lose money.
I am the chief instructor. I have experienced many rounds of bull and bear markets and have rich market experience in many financial fields. Follow the official account (Bit Chief Instructor) to penetrate the fog of information and discover the real market. Grasp more opportunities for wealth codes and discover truly valuable opportunities. Don't miss them and regret it!
Tips for making money with perpetual contracts
1. Avoid full-position trading How should funds be allocated? Fund allocation should be understood from two levels: First, understand fund allocation from the perspective of risk. First, clarify how much loss our account can or is prepared to bear. This is the basis for our thinking about fund allocation. After this total amount is determined, consider how many times we should lose to the market if we lose consecutively in the market according to this total amount, so that we can willingly admit our bad luck and admit failure. I personally think that the most risky method should also be divided into three times. In other words, you should give yourself at least three chances. For example, if the total amount of account funds is 200,000, and the client allows you to lose up to 20%, that is, 40,000, then it is recommended that your most risky loss plan is: 10,000 for the first time, 10,000 for the second time, and 20,000 for the third time. I think this loss plan is still reasonable. Because if you do it right once in three times, you can make a profit or continue to survive in the market. Not being kicked out of the market is a success in itself and there is a chance to win.
2. Grasp the general trend of the market. Trends are much more difficult to follow than shocks, because the trend is to chase ups and downs, and you need to have the determination to hold positions, and buying high and selling low is in line with human nature. The more in line with human nature, the less money you can make in trading. It is precisely because it is difficult to do that you can make money. In an upward trend, any violent callback should be chosen to go long. Do you remember the probability I mentioned? So, if you are not on the bus, or you get off the bus, wait patiently, and if there is a drop of 10~20%, go long boldly.
3. Specify stop-profit and stop-loss targets. Stop-profit and stop-loss can be said to be the key to whether you can make a profit. In several transactions, we must make the total profit greater than the total loss. It is not difficult to achieve this. Just do the following: ① Each stop loss ≤ 5% of the total funds; ② Each profit > 5% of the total funds; ③ The total transaction winning rate > 50%. If the above requirements are met (profit-loss ratio greater than 1 and winning rate greater than 50%), you can achieve profit. Of course, you can also have a high profit-loss ratio and a low winning rate, or a low profit-loss ratio and a high winning rate. Anyway, as long as the total profit is positive, the total profit = initial principal × (average profit × winning rate - average loss × losing rate).
4. Be careful not to trade too frequently. Since BTC perpetual contracts are traded 24 hours a day, many novices will trade every day. They wish they could trade every day for the 22 trading days in a month. As the saying goes: If you walk by the river, you will get your shoes wet. If you trade too much, you will always make mistakes. After making mistakes, your mentality will become bad. Once your mentality becomes bad, you may act impulsively and choose "retaliatory" operations: you may go against the trend or hold a heavy position. This will lead to one wrong step and another, which can easily cause huge losses on the books, and these losses may not be recovered for several years.
5. The timing of entering the contract. Many users open orders at any time 24 hours a day. This behavior is no different from sending money. The purpose of the contract is to make a relatively stable profit strategy with controllable risks and relatively stable indicators, rather than clicking 100 times to buy and then get rich! Therefore, the timing of entering the contract is particularly important!
⑴: Do not open orders during periods of major positive or negative news, because the market is very chaotic at this time, and the spot price can fluctuate at a high speed between 1-3%. If you choose to gamble on the market at this time, you will easily be carried away by the Tiandizhen.
⑵: I usually choose to enter the market after the second bottoming out or rising after a large fluctuation, because after the second wave of market fluctuations, the market fluctuations will gradually stabilize. The risk factor in the subsequent interval is the lowest. The purpose of the contract is to make the most appropriate strategy in the smallest risk interval.
⑶: Enter the market within the indicator range, and never open an order if the indicator parameters do not meet your expectations. This can be understood as entering the market within the scope of your own strategy, and ignoring the market if it does not reach your psychological price. Because the risk factor is also magnified while the contract amplifies the leverage, self-discipline is very important. In short, when the market is stable and the indicators are in place, the risk rate is reduced by 50% out of thin air, and then you can place an order. Disadvantages and risks of perpetual futures perpetual-futures-cons Liquidation risk Liquidation means that when the loss of a position reaches a certain level, resulting in insufficient margin to support the position, the exchange will automatically force liquidation to protect the interests of the exchange and other traders. We will say earlier that the underlying logic of contract trading is actually leveraged lending. For example, Xiaoyu has an investment capital of 100 USDT and uses 10 times leverage to open a long position of BTC worth 1000 USDT. If the price of Bitcoin is 100 USDT at this time, then the essence of this order is to borrow 900 USDT and buy 10 BTC together with the principal, and want to sell it for profit after the price of Bitcoin rises. However, if the price of Bitcoin falls all the way to 90 USDT per coin, the 10 BTC in hand is only worth 900 USDT according to the market price, which is exactly equal to the amount borrowed by Xiaoyu. If the price continues to fall, the value of these 10 BTC will be lower than the loan. The exchange will definitely not let itself lose money, so the exchange will liquidate Xiaoyu's position when the price of Bitcoin drops by 10%, that is, when it drops to 90 USDT per coin, which is what we call "explosion". After the explosion, not only will the user not make any money, but even the margin (principal) for opening the position will be lost. And the higher the leverage used, the easier it is to get liquidated. In the above example, if 10x leverage is used, a 10% price fluctuation in the opposite direction will cause a liquidation; if 100x leverage is used, a 1% price fluctuation in the opposite direction will cause a liquidation. The above example is calculated based on a 100% loss before a liquidation. However, in actual transactions, the percentage of liquidation loss calculated by each exchange is different, and some will be calculated based on 90%. Therefore, in specific transactions, it is more accurate to directly refer to the forced liquidation price given by the exchange. Pinning risk Pinning refers to the market experiencing violent fluctuations in an instant, and then quickly returning to normal levels.This situation may trigger a stop-loss order or cause a liquidation, resulting in losses for investors. A spike may be due to insufficient liquidity on the exchange or the result of malicious market manipulation. Funding rate wear and tear As mentioned earlier, exchanges now require users holding perpetual contract positions to collect funding rates every 8 hours. Although it is only 0.000x% each time, if the position held is large and the position is held for a long time, the cumulative amount of funding rates each time is also a considerable fee.
The contract is risky, so be cautious when trading! Add the MACD indicator and use it together, and the winning rate is as high as 70%, avoiding liquidation!
1. MACD is above the zero axis. Every time a golden cross occurs, the currency price is about to reach a new high.
2. MACD is below the zero axis. Every time a dead cross occurs, the currency price is about to hit a new low.
3. MACD forms a golden cross below the zero axis, which indicates a downward trend rebound and will not participate until it reaches the zero axis.
4. MACD is above the zero axis, which is a bullish market with an upward trend. You can sell high and buy low to reach the top divergence. MACD sells small, the currency price rises, and the next wave of red columns is not as high as the previous wave, and it will fall.
5. If MACD is small, the currency price will fall or remain flat, and the next wave of green columns will not be as low as the previous one, which means it will rise.
6. MACD shrinks at a high level: After the currency price rises sharply, the red column of MACD moves away from the zero axis and shortens, and it moves away quickly.
7. MACD golden cross at a low level: After a sharp drop in the currency price, MACD will move away from the zero axis and will definitely rise. A second golden cross will show a more rapid rise.
8. MACD golden pit: the currency price rises for a wave and then falls back. MACD dead crosses within 7 days and the green column is short and golden crosses again, which means it rises.
The MACD indicator plays a very special role in technical analysis and can be said to be an indispensable part of learning technical analysis. Its importance lies in at least the following points.
1. The MACD indicator is the most effective technical indicator that has been tested by historical trends and is also the most widely used indicator.
2. MACD indicator is derived from the moving average indicator EMA, which has a good application effect in grasping the trend market. Trend investors basically refer to this indicator in actual combat.
3. The top and bottom divergence of the MACD indicator is the recognized and best-used method of "picking at the bottom and selling at the top". This method is an important tool for the concretization of trend theory and wave theory.
4. Many veterans have had this experience: they began to learn the MACD indicator when they first got started, and then slowly abandoned it. After a long period of study and comparison, especially after actual combat testing, they finally returned to the MACD indicator. This shows the special feature of this indicator.
5. MACD indicator is also widely used in quantitative trading. Because of these advantages, MACD indicator has become the most commonly used technical indicator by professional traders. Concept and algorithm of MACD indicator MACD indicator, also known as exponential moving average convergence divergence indicator, was created by Geral Apple. It is a technical analysis tool used to track price trends and judge the timing of K-line buying and selling. This indicator is a commonly used indicator in market software and has the reputation of "king of indicators". As shown in [Figure 1]
The MACD indicator in the currency circle is composed of the "three lines and one axis" of the DIF fast line, the DEA slow line, the MACD column line and the zero axis. Investors judge prices through the intersection, divergence, breakthrough, support and obstruction of these "three lines and one axis". The MACD indicator can be listed as the preferred indicator by many market software, which shows its wide application. This also shows from the side that this indicator is one of the most effective and practical indicators tested by history. The golden cross and dead cross of MACD "Golden Cross" and "Dead Cross" are extremely important forms in the technical indicator analysis method. The golden cross pattern can also be called the golden cross, which refers to the indicator line with a relatively short period crossing from bottom to top and crossing the indicator line with a relatively long period (the same type of indicator line), which often indicates the emergence of short-term buying opportunities. If the golden cross pattern appears after ①. a short-term rapid decline in the decline; ②. a wave of callback trend in the rise; ③. after the consolidation trend in the rise, that is, when the golden cross pattern appears at a staged low, it is a more reliable buy signal. The death cross pattern can also be called the death cross. It refers to the indicator line with a relatively short period crossing from top to bottom and crossing the indicator line with a relatively long period (the same type of indicator line), which often indicates the emergence of a short-term selling opportunity. If the death cross pattern appears after ①. the consolidation trend on the way down; ②. a rebound and rise trend on the way up; ③. a short-term rapid rise trend on the way up, that is, when the death cross pattern appears at a staged high point, it is a more reliable selling signal. After understanding the golden cross pattern and the death cross pattern, we can take a closer look at the golden cross pattern and the death cross pattern of the MACD indicator line. The golden cross and the death cross appear in different positions, which will reflect different market meanings. Situation 1: Buying point of low golden cross The position of the golden cross of the DIFF line and the DEA line, if it appears below the zero axis and far away from the zero axis, this golden cross is called a low golden cross. Investors can regard the golden cross at this time as just a short-term rebound in price. As for whether the K line can form a real reversal, it is necessary to observe and confirm it in combination with other indicators.
As shown in the figure above: On August 27, 2019, the BTC 10-minute K-line chart showed a low-level golden cross as the price pulled back, and then rebounded by $200. Short-term investors can seize the opportunity to enter the market. Case 2: Buying point of the golden cross near the zero axis If the upward trend has been formed, and the golden cross of the DIFF line and the DEA line occurs near the zero axis, then this is often an excellent time for investors to buy. This is because, after the upward trend is formed, the golden cross near the zero axis indicates that the adjustment market has completely ended and a new round of rising market has started. At this time, if it is accompanied by a golden cross of the average volume line, it means that the price increase is supported by the trading volume, and the buying signal will be more reliable. Once this buying point appears, investors should never miss it, otherwise they will miss the big rise.
As shown in the figure above: At 09:30 on August 19, 2019, BTC 5-minute K-line chart, Bitcoin broke through the 30-day moving average, indicating that the upward trend has been initially formed. For a period of time afterwards, the price has almost always been running above the 30-day moving average. At 14:00 on August 19, 2019, the MACD indicator formed a golden cross near the zero axis, indicating that the market is about to see a large upward trend. Investors can buy decisively. Situation 3: Buying point of high-level golden cross If the golden cross of the DIFF line and the DEA line occurs above the zero axis and is in an area far away from the zero axis, then the golden cross is called a high-level golden cross. The high-level golden cross generally appears in the consolidation trend during the rise of the K line, indicating that the consolidation has ended and the K line is about to resume the previous upward trend. Therefore, once the high-level golden cross appears, it is a good signal to increase positions and buy people. In actual combat, when an upward trend is formed, the K-line rises slowly and continues for a long period of time, once the MACD indicator forms a high-level golden cross, it is often a sign that the K-line is about to accelerate its rise. Because of this, the high-level golden cross can also be used for band operations. Investors can use the MACD indicator to continuously snipe the rising band in the upward trend.
As shown in the figure above: On June 25, 2019, BTC 3-hour K-line chart, the price of Bitcoin was in an upward trend, and it rose again after consolidation, and the MACD indicator showed a high golden cross. It shows that the callback has ended and the price will continue the previous upward trend. Investors should pay attention to seize this buying point. Case 4: Selling point of low-level dead cross Low-level dead cross refers to a dead cross that occurs far below the zero axis. This kind of low-level dead cross often appears at the end of the upward rebound in a downward trend, so the low-level dead cross is a sell signal for the end of the rebound. At this time, investors who are not in the market should pay attention to wait and see, and investors who still hold positions that are deeply locked can sell first and buy back after the price drops to reduce costs.
As shown in the figure above: On July 14, 2019, the LTC 3-hour K-line chart, the MACD indicator of Litecoin showed a low-level golden cross, and the price rebounded slightly, and then quickly went down. Immediately afterwards, the MACD indicator formed a dead cross below the zero axis, and then the K-line began a new round of downward trend. Spot investors can sell positions at the dead cross position, and then cover them to reduce the cost of holding positions. Case 5: Selling point of dead cross near the zero axis If the previous market direction has always been a downward trend, the cross formed by the DIFF line falling below the DEA line near the zero axis is called a dead cross near the zero axis. It shows that the market has accumulated more downward momentum near the zero axis. The appearance of the dead cross indicates that the downward momentum of the market has begun to be released, and the K-line will continue the original downward trend, which is a sell signal.
As shown in the figure above: On August 12, 2019, the BTC 1-hour candlestick chart, the DIFF line of Bitcoin fell below the DEA line near the zero axis to form a death cross. It shows that the market's downward momentum has begun to release, which is a sell signal. Investors must decisively sell their positions, otherwise they will be deeply locked. Case 6: Selling point of high-level death cross The cross formed by the DIFF line breaking the DEA line far above the zero axis is called a high-level death cross. This type of death cross pattern is sometimes accompanied by a top divergence of MACD. The manifestation is: the price trend continues to hit new highs in the process of continuous upward attack, but the DIF line and DEA line of the MACD indicator no longer continue to rise or continue to attack, but diverge from the price trend pattern, wave by wave downward. Above the zero axis, the DIF line crosses the DEA line to form a downward cross trend pattern, which is a death cross and a relatively reliable sell signal.
As shown in the figure above: On August 23, 2019, TRX 1-hour K-line chart, after the wave of TRON currency rose, the price continued to hit new highs, but the DIF line and DEA line no longer continued to rise, and then formed a death cross, a sell signal.
Divergence between MACD and K-line Divergence is a term used in physics to describe kinetic energy. In technical analysis, it is a method of analysis with a high success rate and wide application. In a downward trend, the price hits a new low, but the indicator line does not hit a new low. This is called bottom divergence, indicating that the upward momentum is accumulating and is a buy signal. In an upward trend, the price hits a new high, but the indicator line does not hit a new high. This is called top divergence, indicating that the downward momentum is accumulating and is a sell signal.
Ⅰ. Bottom divergence
(1) Bottom divergence between MACD bar and DIFF line The bottom divergence between DIFF line and price refers to the situation that in a downward trend, when the price hits a new low, the DIFF line does not hit a new low. It shows that in the process of price decline, the decline of DIFF line is smaller than the decline of price, the upward momentum of the market is constantly accumulating, the price will stop falling, and the probability of rising in the next period of time is relatively high. The MACD bar is the MACD column line hidden behind the DIFF line, which is divided into red and green. Its divergence with the price is an important use of the MACD indicator and is widely used in actual combat. The bottom divergence between MACD bar and price refers to the situation that when the price hits a new low wave after wave, the MACD bar does not hit a new low. The upward momentum of the market is accumulating, the price will stop falling, and the probability of rising in the next period of time is relatively high. When the bottom divergence occurs, investors can grasp the specific buying point in two ways.
(2) Specific buying opportunity The bottom divergence between the DIFF line, MACD bar line and the price is not a specific time point, but a pattern that appears over a period of time. However, when investors buy, it is a specific time point, indicating that the price is about to stop falling. Therefore, in order to grasp the specific buying opportunity, when the DIFF line, MACD bar line and K line show a bottom divergence, investors must combine the bottom divergence with other technical analysis tools to concretize the buying point of the bottom divergence. First: The bar line changes color or the golden cross of MACD The bar line changes color, indicating that the market's upward momentum has begun to take advantage. It usually appears after the "bar line shortening", although it will be a while later but more reliable. When the bottom divergence appears, the bar line changes color smoothly or golden crosses, and investors can buy.
As shown in the figure above: On August 26, 2019, the 15-minute candlestick chart of Ethereum (ETH), the price of Ethereum hit a new low in the decline, but the MACD bar line did not hit a new low, forming a bottom divergence between the bar line and the price. It shows that the market's upward momentum has begun to accumulate, and there is a high possibility that the price will rise again. Immediately afterwards, the bar line changed color. The superposition of these two buy signals that appeared successively increased the reliability of the significance of the rise. Investors can intervene when the bar line changes color. Second: Combined with other technical analysis tools and K-line reversal patterns. The bottom divergence is combined with the K-line reversal pattern, such as the coordination of "single needle bottoming" and "bottom red three soldiers". This is the specific application of the principle of "multi-indicator coordination".
As shown in the figure above: On August 26, 2016, the BTC 30-minute candlestick chart showed that the price of Bitcoin hit a new low, but the MACD bar did not hit a new low, forming a bottom divergence between the bar and the price, indicating that the market's upward momentum is constantly increasing. As the price stopped falling, a buy signal of "MACD bar and price bottom divergence + K-line single needle bottoming" was formed. After that, the price showed a wave of upward trend.
Ⅱ. Top Divergence
(1) The top divergence between the MACD-bar and the DIFF line. The top divergence between the MACD-bar and the K-line refers to the situation in which the price reaches a new high during an upward trend, but the MACD-bar does not. It indicates that the market's downward momentum is accumulating and prices may fall at any time. The top divergence between the DIFF line and the K-line refers to the situation in which the price reaches a new high during an upward trend, but the DIFF line does not. It indicates that the market's downward momentum is accumulating and prices are likely to fall next.
(2) Specific selling timing Similar to bottom divergence, in actual combat, according to the principle of multi-indicator coordination, investors can combine the following methods to make the selling signal more specific. First: bar color change or MACD death cross After the top divergence between the MACD bar and the K-line is formed, once the bar suddenly shortens significantly, it indicates that the market's downward momentum has begun to release. Investors should pay attention to selling in time. The MACD bar changes color, indicating that the market's downward momentum has taken the upper hand, which generally occurs after the bar continues to shrink. If the bar changes color or the MACD death cross appears after the top divergence between the bar and the K-line, investors should pay attention to exiting the market in time.
As shown in the figure above: On August 9, 2019, the HT1-hour K-line chart, Huobi price hit a new high, but the MACD bar line did not hit a new high, forming a top divergence pattern between the bar line and the price. It shows that the market's downward momentum has begun to accumulate, and the price may fall at any time. Subsequently, the MACD bar line changed from red to green, sending a sell signal of "bar line and price top divergence + bar line color change". Investors should pay attention to exiting the market in time. Second: Combined with other technical analysis tools and K-line reversal patterns After the MACD bar line and price top divergence appear, if other technical analysis tools also have sell signals at the same time, then the reliability of the market's selling significance will be greatly increased. At this time, investors should pay attention to exiting the market decisively. Common sell signals of this type include "bar line and price top divergence + K-line reversal pattern".
As shown in the figure above: On July 20, 2019, the ETH 3-hour candlestick chart, the price of Ethereum hit a new high, but the MACD bar line did not hit a new high, forming a top divergence between the bar line and the price. It shows that the market's downward momentum is constantly increasing, and the price may have a wave of downward trend. Subsequently, the MACD bar line gradually shortened, and the K line formed a bearish evening star pattern. Investors should pay attention to exiting in time, and then the K line showed a large downward trend. Attachment: Evening Star: In the process of the K line rising, a longer positive line appears first, and a shorter real K line appears the next day (either positive or negative). People compare it to a star, which is the main part of the K line combination. The third K line is a longer negative line, which has penetrated into the main part of the first K line. The evening star is a signal that the price has peaked and fallen back. Some people predict that the accuracy rate is above 80%. (About some K-line patterns that have reached the top and bottom. We will have several special courses to explain in depth later. Welcome to continue to pay attention) Modification of MACD parameters The delayed response to price changes makes the buying and selling prices sometimes not ideal. This is a defect of the MACD indicator. One way to change this situation is to change the indicator parameters so that the MACD indicator becomes more sensitive to the trend, so that the price of the buying and selling points can be more ideal. In the commonly used market software, the default parameters of the MACD indicator are 12/26/9. Under such parameter settings, the MACD indicator often has a more obvious lag in response to price changes. The lag of the MACD indicator can be solved by adjusting the parameters. Commonly used parameter combinations are 5/34/5, 5/10/30, etc. Investors can also try and explore more in practice.
Execution is the hard part of trading, and holding orders is a common problem in investment. Without good execution, no matter how good the strategy is, it cannot be realized. However, due to too many holding orders, even the smallest mistakes are magnified, just like the multiplication of lesions. When you can no longer bear it and leave this market, I guess no one will say goodbye to you. Even if you have been here, no one will remember you a year later. You cannot hold any position by luck when entering the market, and you cannot bet with a full position in any game. If you fail once, you have to pack up and leave. Only a hundred successes can be called success.
[Coin Circle] 10 profound conclusions from my own investment
1. After I studied a lot of books on stock K-line and economics,
I found that psychology is more suitable for practical application in the cryptocurrency circle.
2. There has always been a phenomenon in the cryptocurrency circle: the last one standing is the winner.
As long as you keep playing and never give up, you will have a chance to turn things around in the end.
When you think you are unlucky and sell your inventory, the imaginary loss becomes a real loss.
3. Don’t participate in high-risk markets with money you can’t afford to gamble.
Don't try to participate in the speculative market without the ability to speculate.
Speculation is to listen to the stories told by others, then participate in them, and then withdraw before the public sees through them.
4. Learn to understand not to easily accept other people’s opinions.
You should think independently first, and then start your own investment behavior. After all, the money is in your hands.
5. Don’t touch futures. Human nature cannot stand the test.
Under the high-pressure emotional environment of futures trading, it is extremely difficult to achieve unity of knowledge and action, so even if there is a 51% winning rate or even a 65% winning rate, you should not touch it.
If you encounter a predictable one-sided market, you should also apply the Kelly formula to avoid losing all your capital under irrational circumstances and making it difficult to recover. See the second article.
6. Study hard and invest in yourself.
Reading is a form of spiritual practice and can indeed improve the quality of one's life.
The improvement of one's cultivation is more important than money.
Investing in yourself, money is just a necessary basic thing. It does not mean that you invest in yourself just by spending money, nor does it mean that you become powerful just by buying books and applying for credit cards. What is more important is self-control and thinking ability. Without self-control, it is a waste, and without thinking ability, it is speculation. To be honest, if you don’t have confidence in your self-control, don’t think about how to invest in yourself, first practice how to persist in doing one thing well.
For example: insist on fixed investment
For example: learn to identify valid information.
7. Recommended investment books
Cash flow: (Rich Dad Poor Dad) (Puppy Money)
Human nature: (Human weaknesses) (Mob) and game
Blockchain: (Illustrated Blockchain) (easy to understand)
(bitcoin) White Paper English Version
8. Understand the significance of investment
When investing in the future, you need to understand the significance of spending money here and in the future.
Moreover, the essence of buying an investment product is to buy opportunities, and the essence of selling an investment product is to sell risks. Have chance then buy, have risk then sell, and there will be no false gains or losses due to price.
9. Have a passive income mindset.
A person who earns 20,000 yuan a month loses 29 days of freedom in a month.
With a monthly income of 2,000, all of it is passive income.
The younger you are, the more you should lean towards the latter.
Speculation in cryptocurrency means losing your freedom.
Investing in cryptocurrency is about gaining freedom.
10. Disagreement and doubt will be the ultimate driving force for the start of a bull market
Exchanging time for space and people no longer wanting to get on board will be the beginning of a bull market.
Always be curious about new things, and don’t miss the next hype story because of sticking to the old ones.
Lao Qi will share this first!!!
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