Detailed analysis of BTC market, conclusion first: The probability of a bullish trend is higher.
The highest accumulation of BTC contracts was 6480m on May 22, while the highest accumulation for spot was 1260m. Adjusting to the situation today, the 27th, the remaining contracts are 4230, and the remaining spot is 124m. It was previously mentioned that contracts represent the major players and institutions, while spot represents retail investors.
Contracts have exited by 34%, while spot has exited by 90%, indicating that 90% of retail investors have been washed out, while the outflow from the major players is minimal. The outflow of funds may belong to the major players, but it could also be retail investors and institutions riding along with the major players.
The result is clear: Major players have washed out retail investors, so what’s next?
Let’s look at the situation with ETH: The major players holding spot have been steadily holding, and recently there are signs of increasing positions. Contracts are mainly held by retail investors, who are currently experiencing fluctuations, with not many people left on board.
