1. High-leverage players are getting washed out.
In recent months, those playing high leverage (borrowing money to trade cryptocurrencies) have faced significant losses, with liquidation amounts reaching tens of billions of dollars. The scale of borrowing to trade cryptocurrencies in the market is now half of what it was at the beginning of the year, reducing risk somewhat, but any 10% price fluctuation can still trigger liquidations of billions in positions. Retail investors who have held coins for less than six months start selling off crazy after making 27% profit, especially after Trump's tariff policy at the end of May, which caused Bitcoin to drop from 110,000 dollars to 108,000, directly triggering the liquidation of 1.2 billion dollars in contracts.
2. Old investors are secretly buying the dip.
Long-term holders (those who have held coins for over 155 days) have aggressively accumulated 250,000 Bitcoins in the past six months, now holding 14 million, which accounts for 65% of the market. Their average cost is around 30,000 dollars, and with the current price at 100,000 dollars, they are making a profit of 200%. Large holders are withdrawing coins from exchanges into cold wallets, reducing the available coins in the market by 20%, effectively locking up their holdings.
3. 100,000 dollars is a critical threshold; there are too many trapped positions at this level, and significant capital is needed to break through.
In the range of 85,000 to 95,000 dollars, there are 3 billion dollars in short positions. If the price breaks 95,000, shorts will be forced to buy coins at high prices to repay debts, which will push the price even higher.
4. How to choose between risk and opportunity?
If the price continues to rise and short-term traders make a profit of 40% around mid-June, it is likely that there will be a collective sell-off, potentially dropping the price back to 70,000 dollars. ETF institutions bought 44.5 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin this month, and with old investors holding tightly, buying in batches around 80,000 dollars could be a good opportunity to wait for the next wave to reach 150,000 dollars.
For short-term traders, don't gamble on direction lately. Focus on the support at 90,000 and resistance at 105,000; if it breaks down, get out; if it breaks through, follow the trend.
Hodlers will buy a bit if it drops below 90,000, focusing on ETF capital inflow and news of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The market is currently dominated by large players accumulating chips, while retail investors are playing a risky game. In the short term, there may continue to be fluctuations, but in the long run, the average cost for old investors is only 30,000 dollars, and those who can hold will be the winners.
I am the Dragon King, follow me. A top-tier team supports me, serving only the ambitious madmen.
$BTC