Aave's price has shown significant upward momentum, driven mainly by multiple factors in conjunction with market dynamics and on-chain data.
1. Technical Market Analysis

  1. After AAVE recently broke the $250 resistance level, the technical pattern shows a golden cross with the 50-day EMA crossing above the 200-day EMA, and it has firmly established itself at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of $275. The RSI technical indicator shows that bullish momentum has not yet reached overbought levels, opening space for further upward movement.

  2. The AAVE futures premium has risen to 8%, with an increase in open interest, indicating the accumulation of leveraged long positions. The market expects the price to move further upward. If the price breaks through $265, it may trigger short position liquidations, leading to a short-term acceleration in price increases.

2. News Front - Information Explosion

  1. Aave's total locked value (TVL) surpassed $25 billion on May 11, reaching a historic high, accounting for 21% of the DeFi market share, far exceeding competitors like Lido. Aave V4 is planned for launch in the second half of 2025, which will introduce a modular architecture and GHO stablecoin optimization, further enhancing capital efficiency and user experience.

  2. Aside from the giant whale, another institutional investor spent $15 million to purchase 57,715 AAVE at an average price of $259.9 through Wintermute OTC on May 24, showing institutions' long-term bets on the DeFi leader. After Ethereum's price broke the $2,500 mark, the overall activity in the DeFi ecosystem increased, with whales indirectly boosting AAVE demand by borrowing, such as depositing WBTC to borrow USDC to purchase WETH.

  3. The exchange balance has decreased over the past week, with AAVE's exchange balance dropping by about 20% from 2.72 million to 2.16 million, indicating that long-term holders tend to hoard tokens, further intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand.

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