Analysis of the technical and market logic behind SOL's failed attempt to reach $180 and its drop back to $170.
1. Technical analysis - Resistance and support levels.
1. According to on-chain data, around $180 is a supply dense area for long-term holders of SOL, where a large amount of profit-taking was accumulated during the 2024 bull market. After briefly touching $180 on May 24, SOL quickly retreated, showing that this area faces dual pressure from profit-taking and psychological resistance. In terms of technical indicators, the EMA moving average system's 20/50/100 days formed a death cross between $175-$185, with short-term moving averages crossing below long-term moving averages, confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.
2. After SOL falls below $190 in March 2025, a descending triangle is formed, with $170-$180 being the lower boundary of the oscillation range. On May 26, when it rebounded to $180, the trading volume was only 60% of the previous downtrend, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. If it cannot quickly recover $180, the technical pattern will confirm a descending continuation structure, and the next support level will shift down to $160, the starting point of the bull market in 2024.
2. News front - Market news leak.
1. Over the past 7 days, the stablecoins USDT & USDC on the Tron network increased by $913 million, while stablecoins USDT & USDC on the Solana network decreased by $267 million.
2. Toly, co-founder of Solana Labs, posted on social media suggesting that cryptocurrency project founders should conduct a rehearsal exercise each quarter to prepare for potential extreme market declines. He raised three key questions: if the market crashes by 95%, what products should the founders focus on developing in the 18 months before the market recovers, what kind of core team should be assembled, and whether there are enough short-term treasury cash reserves to support operations. This suggestion aims to help crypto entrepreneurs plan ahead to sustain project survival and development in a bear market.
3. On May 27, Moonshot launched the Solana on-chain token IBRL, which currently has a market cap of $51.9 million. IBRL is the test token of Gavel, a new token issuance platform on Solana, which raised a total of 30,747 SOL, about $5.72 million, on May 21.
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