At the macro level, the Federal Reserve's short-term policy path is gradually becoming clearer. According to CME's 'FedWatch', as of now, the probability of maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged in June has reached 94.4%, and expectations for rate cuts have basically been marginalized. The July meeting shows more suspense, with a 74.9% chance of keeping rates unchanged, while the possibility of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 23.9%. Although the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 1.1%, it indicates that the market remains open to potential policy shifts in the future.
On the macro front, Trump's attitude has slightly adjusted over the weekend, extending the tariff negotiation window with the EU, which the market interprets as a signal of risk release. As a result, the three major U.S. stock index futures collectively rose, with Nasdaq futures up more than 1% and S&P 500 futures also rising close to 0.9%. However, since the U.S. stock market is closed on Monday, the main market forces have not yet returned, and true market feedback will not be evident until Tuesday. Over the weekend, Bitcoin saw a slight decline, reflecting more of the emotional changes of ordinary players rather than large-scale operations by major funds.
In terms of the cryptocurrency market, the 2025 Las Vegas Bitcoin Conference has announced its guest lineup, covering many important figures from the U.S. political and business sectors: Vice President Vance, Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. from the Trump family, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, and Senator Cynthia Lummis, a long-time supporter of digital currency legislation. This summit lineup clearly injects new topics and attention into the Bitcoin market.
The popularity of altcoins remains relatively low. According to Coinmarketcap, the latest Altcoin Season Index reports 24, slightly higher than the previous day's 23, indicating that currently only about 24% of the top 100 cryptocurrency assets are performing better than Bitcoin, highlighting that Bitcoin's dominance in market trends remains unchanged.
On-chain data shows that the platform's BTC holdings have not fluctuated much, and overall player confidence remains stable. The decrease in turnover rate indicates low market trading willingness. Additionally, those holding coins at a loss are reducing their positions on dips, while profit-holding players are choosing to stay put, waiting for the market to become clearer. More concerning is the behavior of long-term holders. Data from the past two days shows that the number of addresses holding coins for over a year continues to rise, possibly indicating that the market has entered a high price region.
Chip data shows that a large number of holdings are concentrated in the $93,000 to $98,000 range, which is an important defense line for Bitcoin at this stage. Short-term market fluctuations will still be affected by geopolitical factors, especially Trump's subsequent remarks and policy direction regarding tariffs, which will be the focus influencing BTC's short-term volatility.
Overall, the long-short ratio has dropped to a relatively low level around 0.55, and the market has not shown obvious 'FOMO' sentiment. Bitcoin has had seven consecutive weekly gains, and this week there is a possibility of a pullback to the five-week line. If Trump’s foreign policy does not create new uncertainties, even if Bitcoin experiences a certain degree of pullback, there is still a chance for the market to maintain a volatile upward trend.
