Today we discuss a question that has been asked a lot lately: many people previously cleared positions at some points, like 1900, 2000, 2100, 2200, selling at the bottom, and now they watch Ethereum rise with their eyes wide open. What should they do now?
This is a psychological barrier that many people cannot escape during a bull market: you dare not buy during the pullback, and once it goes up, you start to panic.
What we currently see is that Ethereum's performance is very strong, and it is not willing to give obvious pullback opportunities. From the peak until now, the maximum retracement has only been about 8%, and there hasn't even been a 10% adjustment. This also indicates that there are many people currently missing out on the market, suggesting that there is potential 'momentum to chase' in the current market.
But the core of the problem is not 'should you chase now.' The real question is: why did you miss out?
To put it bluntly, the essence of missing out on the market is that there is a problem with your trading system.
If you had initially operated according to our mid-to-long term holding, trend judgment, and structural building methods, regardless of how the market fluctuated, you would still be able to enjoy the big gains when they ultimately rise. This is the power of a system.
Zhao Dong said it well: 'Wait for a crash with a full position.' If you understand this sentence, you grasp the underlying philosophy of the Bitcoin game. What does it mean? It means that in a high-growth, highly volatile cyclical market, you cannot expect to perfectly execute every high sell and low buy, but you must have a base position, faith, and time.
If you previously took all your positions to chase a mere 6% gain for short-term trading, your risk and reward are completely mismatched. I trade in waves and never allocate more than 10% of my position for entertainment; I would never stand by without a position during a major uptrend.
Why operate this way? Because you must clarify what you are doing. Otherwise, you are just using emotions to gamble with the market, and emotions are always a tool for the market to harvest you. Since Ethereum's inception, it has risen more than a thousand times. What we need to do is to look long term. If you are concerned about a 10% or 20% adjustment space, you may miss the entire major uptrend, or even the doubling space.
So the question is, should you chase?
If you believe that blockchain and smart contracts are the revolutionary infrastructure of this era, even if they cannot change the world, they will at least occupy a place in it. Then you should get on board.
But if you think it’s just a Ponzi scheme that will eventually go to zero, then you shouldn’t touch it. Otherwise, you are not truly investing; you are gambling.
In other words, do not understand 'chasing' as a short-term behavior, but as the realization of your long-term understanding.
Of course, there are different ways to chase. Do you go all in immediately, wait for a pullback to add to your position, or gradually build your position along each small pullback? This is a matter of strategic choice. If you have already missed the bottom positions, then you must bear more risk and pay a higher price above.
For example, the one-dollar ETH in 2015 and the ten-dollar ETH—those chips were sold and are gone. These opportunities are historical levels. And now that you are entering the market, you must accept a reality: you have to bear greater position pressure and a higher discomfort from holding.
You also need to clearly review: did you miss the bottom because you were too opportunistic? Or were you psychologically affected by media news? Or do you simply not understand what you are buying, and what the essence of the market is? Only by finding the root cause can you avoid repeating the same mistakes next time.
When the market drops by 10% and the altcoins correct by 20%, you get scared; when it rises, you regret missing out; during a pullback, you cut losses; and when it rises a little, you buy back. If you keep trading based on emotions, your wallet will ultimately revert to 'mean reversion,' which is zero.
Do you have a purpose when you open a position? Have you thought about whether you entered the market due to technical analysis, fundamentals, or cyclical reasons? Do you really understand this product?
Therefore, when the market is confusing, what helps you navigate through the fog is not someone else's calls, nor the market's heat, but your own deep understanding of this thing.
Only when you understand blockchain, understand Ethereum's role and path, can you remain calm in the face of various news distractions. Otherwise, whether it's liquidity contraction, the Federal Reserve's remarks, or reports from certain analysis institutions, any of these could easily wash you out.
Let me say it again, the key is not whether you should chase, but whether you know what you are doing.
If you're just anxiously chasing in because you see others making money, then you're essentially not investing; you're just giving away money.
Especially for friends who are new to the space, if you haven't even figured out what Ethereum is for, and you haven't learned the basic logic of blockchain but are just thinking about making quick money, then your losses are inevitable.
At such times, do not think about going all in right away, or even leveraging to chase the highs, thinking you are going to become 'the trendsetter of fate.' When you see others doubling or tripling their returns, you need to understand that those are positions built at the bottom, not at this stage.
Don't immediately rush to catch up just because you see others buying A8A9 and quickly moving to A10 while you're still riding an electric donkey. You should know that most people lose all their capital during the craziest phase at the end of a bull market.
The truly successful people are those who quietly build their positions when others mock Bitcoin as 'dead,' and then quietly reduce their positions when everyone is shouting 'get on board.'
So, if you really agree with this direction, why not do this:
Don’t go all in; build your position in batches and accept possible adjustments in the future.
Choose assets with clear fundamentals and long-term logical support, such as ETH, L2 main chains, and core infrastructure.
Looking at it over a longer cycle, every pullback is an opportunity, but the premise is that youhave recognized the value in advance, not shouting for help after it has dropped.
The most important thing is to build your own system; otherwise, you will always regret after every round of missing out, panic during every round of rising, and cut losses during every round of pullback.
Finally, to sum it up:
The real factor that helps you is not the market; it ultimately comes down to your level of understanding.
If your understanding is insufficient, don’t rush to get in; if your understanding is there, don’t hesitate. The rest is just execution.