Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the $110,000 mark recently, with the market showing a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As analyzed last week, repeated 'false breakthroughs' have consumed market confidence, and since altcoins have failed to generate profit effects, a large amount of capital remains dormant. This capital is like soldiers waiting for the charge signal; once Bitcoin confirms an upward trend, it will flood the market with multiple leverages, activating the entire crypto ecosystem and creating a virtuous cycle—a true altcoin bull market may just kick off.

Current Market: Whale Games and Market Risks

In the current volatile market, those who may benefit the most are contract whales like James. Interestingly, some accounts have publicly taken opposite positions to James, making over $5 million in profit. However, caution is needed as these operations might be 'smoke screens'—whales attract followers through public addresses, secretly taking opposite positions, and then arbitraging with the traffic. In the contract market, high leverage and blind following are always a game of life and death; respecting the market is the survival rule.

Macroeconomic Trends: US-EU Negotiations and Geopolitical Fluctuations

Although US stock markets are closed, the rise in European stocks and US stock futures releases a positive signal. The EU is accelerating 'zero tariffs for zero tariffs' negotiations with the US, indicating that Trump's pressure is beginning to show results. However, analysts warn that there may still be a 'decisive phase' ahead, similar to the tug-of-war in the US-China trade war.

Additionally, the US-Japan negotiations on May 30, the ongoing tense US-Iran relations (with Iran refusing to suspend uranium enrichment), and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict (with Trump unusually condemning Putin) could become triggers for market volatility, warranting close attention.


Exchange Wars: Binance Leads, OKX Surprises

Binance Alpha attracts a large amount of external funds with high-yield financial products, even drawing in US stock investors, compounded by a 'tacit understanding' with the Trump administration, making its global expansion unstoppable. Upbit quickly follows suit, with newly launched HYPER and RED surging 30% in a single day, validating the model's effectiveness.

OKX takes a different approach, launching liquidity mining with an APY over 3000% using wallet advantages, attempting to siphon off mid and small users from Binance. If the exchanges continue to compete by 'spending money', professional arbitrage studios may become the new trend.

Altcoin Dawn: ETH Leads, ETF and PayFi Track Heat Up

Today, the ETH/BTC exchange rate quickly rebounded to 0.024, a key indicator suggesting that the altcoin market may be approaching. ETF experts point out that the approval of the ETH spot ETF is due to Grayscale's legal victory against the SEC, and other altcoins (except XRP) may find it difficult to replicate this path in the short term.

Elon Musk's X Money payment feature progress boosts the PayFi track (such as HUMA, XRP, XLM), while the RWA concept (ONDO, MKR) also strengthens simultaneously. AI Agent projects (VIRTUAL, KAITO) and trading platform coins (LAUNCHCOIN, IBRL) are being revalued due to clear profit logic, while infrastructure tokens (JUP, UNI) and public chains (SOL, ETH) remain solid choices.


The core logic of this bull market: Pragmatism is Key

Unlike previous bull markets where 'all boats rise', this round of market trends values real worth more—projects with users, data, and cash flow will stand out, while pure concept speculation may face elimination. Investors need to focus on fundamentals, hold onto their chips amidst volatility, and wait for the market to provide the final answer.