If you are still holding onto the dream of getting rich quickly, still fantasizing about 'the opportunity to win effortlessly in a bull market', you may have already been completely abandoned by the market.
Because smart money has already discovered a secret: the current crypto market no longer applies a single strategy, but rather four completely different gameplay cycles are running simultaneously.
Bitcoin super cycle: retail investors exit, slow bull markets for institutions may become a certainty.
The 'script' of the traditional halving cycle? Completely ineffective! BTC has evolved from a 'speculative target' to an 'institutional allocation asset'; the capital scale and allocation logic of Wall Street, listed companies, and ETFs are completely different from the retail investors' 'bull-bear switching' strategy.
Where is the key change? Retail chips are being handed over on a large scale, while institutional funds represented by MicroStrategy are pouring in madly. This fundamental reconstruction of chip structure is redefining BTC's price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics.
What are retail investors facing? The dual squeeze of 'time cost' and 'opportunity cost'. Institutions can endure a holding period of 3-5 years to wait for BTC's long-term value realization, but what about retail investors? Clearly, they cannot have such patience and capital layout strength.
We are likely to see a prolonged BTC super slow bull market. Annualized returns may stabilize in the 20-30% range, but intra-day volatility will significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. As for how high BTC's price ceiling will reach? From the perspective of current retail investors, it is even very difficult to predict.
MEME attention short-wave cycle: from slum paradise to professional harvesting ground.
The long bull theory of MEME is actually valid; during the technical narrative expressiveness vacuum period, MEME narration will always align with the rhythm of sentiment, funds, and attention to fill the market's 'boredom vacuum'.
What is the essence of MEME? It is a speculative vehicle for 'instant gratification'. No white papers, no technical validation, no roadmaps, just a symbol that can make people smile or resonate is enough. From cat-dog culture to political MEMEs, from AI concept packaging to community IP incubation, MEME has evolved into a complete 'emotion monetization' industrial chain.
The crux is that the 'short, flat, and fast' characteristic of MEME has made it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, MEME becomes the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are tight, MEME turns into the last refuge for speculation.
However, reality is harsh; the MEME market is evolving from 'grassroots carnival' to 'professional competition'. It is becoming exponentially harder for ordinary retail investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation.
The story of young P sitting idly and creating legends may become increasingly rare, as the entry of studios, scientists, and large investors will make this once 'slum paradise' intensely competitive.
Technical narrative leap-style long cycle: bottom fishing in the valley of death, starting with a 10 times return in 3 years?
Has the technical narrative disappeared? Not at all. Real innovations with technical barriers, such as Layer2 scaling, ZK technology, AI infra, etc., require 2-3 years or even longer build time to see actual results. These projects follow the technology maturity curve (Gartner Hype Cycle), not the emotional cycle of capital markets – there is a fundamental time misalignment between the two.
The reason why the technical narrative is criticized by the market is entirely due to the excessively high valuations given when projects are still in the concept stage, and then experiencing undervaluation in the 'valley of death' phase when technology truly begins to land. This determines that the value release of technical projects presents a non-linear leap characteristic.
For patient investors with technical judgment, positioning in truly valuable technical projects during the 'valley of death' phase may be the best strategy for obtaining excess returns. But the premise is, you must endure a long waiting period and market torment, as well as potential ridicule.
Innovative small hotspots short cycle: 1-3 month window period, brewing the main rising wave big narrative.
Before the main line technical narrative takes shape, various small narratives rotate rapidly, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI Infra (MCP+A2A), each small hotspot may only have a 1-3 month window period.
This fragmentation of narratives and high-frequency rotation reflects the current market's dual constraints of attention scarcity and capital seeking efficiency.
In fact, it is not difficult to find that the typical small narrative cycle follows a six-stage model: 'concept validation → fund exploration → opinion amplification → FOMO entry → valuation overshoot → fund withdrawal'. Want to profit in this mode?
The key is to enter during the 'concept validation' to 'fund exploration' stage and exit at the peak of 'FOMO entry'.
The competition between small narratives is essentially a zero-sum game for attention resources. If subsequent narratives can continue previous hotspots, form systematic upgrade interactions, and truly sediment a sustainable value loop in the interaction process, it is very likely to give birth to a super narrative of a main rising wave level similar to DeFi Summer.
From the current small narrative pattern, AI infrastructure is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first.
In summary, understanding the essence of these four parallel gameplay cycles is crucial to finding suitable strategies within their respective rhythms. Undoubtedly, a singular 'four-year cycle' mindset can no longer keep up with the complexity of the current market.
Adapting to the 'new normal of multiple gameplay cycles running in parallel' may be the key to truly profiting in this bull market.
