#🧭 Divergence Between Total Open Interest and Price
Total Open Interest: Currently 44.5M, fluctuating between 39.1M and 44.5M in the last hour, not significantly decreasing with the price drop (-1.72%), indicating that bears are starting to exert pressure but have not triggered large-scale stop losses among bulls, intensifying the bull-bear game.
Signal: If the price continues to fall and open interest sharply increases, it may trigger a 'double kill' for both bulls and bears; if open interest rapidly decreases, it indicates withdrawal of main funds and a trend reversal.
🍉 Divergence Between Large and Retail Investors
Large Investor Bull-Bear Ratio (by Open Interest): Assuming the red-green bar ratio is 1.42-1.65 (needs verification with chart specifics), large investors still hold a bullish advantage, but caution is needed as they may secretly reduce positions.
Retail Bull-Bear Ratio: The proportion of short accounts remains high (bull-bear ratio <1), with strong bearish sentiment among retail investors, but open interest is concentrated in the hands of large investors, making retail investors susceptible to being caught in a reversal by the main funds.
🍑 Active Buying and Selling Volume and Basis Signal
Active Buying Volume (Green Bars): No significant increase in this period, insufficient willingness for a bull counterattack.
Basis (Contract-Spot Price Difference): Basis narrows from a high of 12.00 to 1.00, with significant reduction in contract premium, cooling market bullish sentiment. If basis turns negative, it may accelerate the decline.
📉 Short-term Trend Projection
Bearish Dominant Scenario
Key Resistance: 0.6668 (current price) → 0.6700 (psychological level) → 0.6800 (previous high).
Downside Risk:
If the price breaks below 0.6500 and open interest exceeds 44.5M, it may test 0.6356 (previous low support).
Negative Basis + High Proportion of Retail Shorts May Trigger Panic Selling.
Short Squeeze Warning:
If the price unexpectedly rebounds above 0.6750, short accounts may consolidate positions, pushing the price quickly up to 0.6900-0.7000.
Bullish Reversal Conditions
Necessary Condition: Open interest breaks 46.19M (previous high) and basis returns above 5.00, indicating strong intervention by main funds.
Signal Verification: Active buying volume (green bars) suddenly increases, combined with the large investor bull-bear ratio rising above 1.8.
