'Hoard coins for 10 times return', 'Lazy earn 10 times'... The crypto world has never lacked wealth-building myths, but those who truly survive to the end understand: those operations claiming 'guaranteed profits' often hide the sharpest scythe. Today we will dissect the true nature of 9 popular strategies, allowing you to see the deadly traps behind the 'guaranteed profit' slogan.
I. Coin Hoarding Treasure: What seems like a simple 'endurance game', 90% of people fail before dawn.
Mythical Logic
'Buy and don’t move, eat both bull and bear markets, waiting for a 10-fold return'—this is one of the oldest lies in the crypto world. Supporters often cite Bitcoin's historical rise from $1 to $60,000 as an example while deliberately ignoring countless halving events in between.
Truth Bomb
Time Cost Trap: Bitcoin took 3 years to rise from $1,000 to $10,000, and another 4 years to rise from $10,000 to $60,000; ordinary people find it hard to endure years of sideways movement.
Zeroing Risk: Among ICO projects in 2017, 95% of tokens have zeroed out; hoarding coins may not yield a 10-fold return but rather lead to zeroing.
Opportunity Cost: During the DeFi wave in 2020, investors who held onto Bitcoin missed out on opportunities for hundredfold altcoins.
Practical Data
Statistics from a certain platform show: In 2018, 38% of investors who bought and held Bitcoin cut losses at the first halving, 52% gave up at the second pullback, and ultimately only 10% made it to the 2021 bull market—of these 10%, 60% got off the train halfway up.
II. Chasing Declines in Bull Markets: What seems like a smart rotation strategy is actually a plan to cultivate bag holders.
Mythical Logic
'Use 20% of funds to buy altcoins with a market cap of 20-100, switch when it rises by 50%'—this sounds like a textbook cyclical operation.
Truth Bomb
Market Cap Trap: So-called 'market cap 20-100' altcoins are mostly junk coins controlled by manipulators, and a 50% increase is precisely to sell off.
Switching Trap: When you sell Coin A to buy Coin B, Coin A may continue to rise while Coin B begins to plummet, a classic 'double slap in the face'.
Bull Market Liquidation Lie: In the 2017 bull market, 80% of those chasing declines were deeply trapped in the 2018 bear market; the so-called 'bull market liquidation' is just a pie in the sky drawn by manipulators.
Typical Case
In 2021, when a certain DeFi token rose from $1 to $5, many investors chased the decline to buy in; the manipulators took the opportunity to sell off, and the price quickly fell back to $1.5. When investors cut losses and switched to another token, the original token briefly rebounded to $3—this kind of 'precise harvesting' is common in bull markets.
III. Hourglass Switching: What seems like a reasonable rotation logic is actually bait thrown out by manipulators.
Mythical Logic
'Big coins rise first → mainstream coins follow → small coins explode; once big coins rise, pick up the ones that haven’t'—a strategy labeled as 'essential for bull markets' by many analysts.
Truth Bomb
Time Difference Trap: When you notice 'big coins are rising but small coins aren’t', it may already be the end of the manipulators preparing to switch tracks.
Information Difference Trap: The 'rotation pattern' ordinary investors see is often a false illusion deliberately created by manipulators.
Switching Ditch: In May 2021, many investors switched to altcoins after Bitcoin's rise, but Bitcoin briefly corrected before continuing to rise, while altcoins began to plummet.
Data Validation
Backtesting the 2020-2021 bull market data reveals: Investors strictly executing the 'hourglass switching' strategy had a return rate 47% lower than holding Bitcoin, and 32% lower than holding mainstream coins—what is called 'switching' is often just switching from a slow vehicle to one that is about to crash.
IV. Pyramid Bottom-Fishing: What seems like a scientific method for batch building positions is actually an amplifier of losses.
Mythical Logic
'Buy in batches at 80%-50% during a crash'—this sounds like textbook risk control.
Truth Bomb
Downward Prediction Trap: What you think is '80% position' may just be the beginning of a downturn. In 2022, LUNA dropped from $80 to $0.1; any pyramid bottom-fishing will lead to liquidation.
Capital Allocation Trap: It is difficult for ordinary investors to accurately judge the specific points of '80%' and '50%'
Mindset Trap: When the market continues to decline, the 'pyramid' can turn into a 'bottomless pit', leading to significant losses.
Practical Lessons
In 2022, when Bitcoin dropped from $60,000, an investor bought 20%, 30%, and 50% positions at $50,000, $40,000, and $30,000 respectively, resulting in Bitcoin falling to $16,000, leading to a final loss of 60%—the so-called 'scientific bottom-fishing' can become a catalyst for accelerated losses in extreme conditions.
V. Moving Average Operations: What seems like precise buying and selling signals is actually a lagging buy-high-sell-low strategy.
Mythical Logic
'Buy when MA5 crosses above MA10, sell when it crosses below'—a 'technical gem' revered by countless beginners.
Truth Bomb
Lagging Trap: The essence of moving average indicators is the average of historical data; when a signal appears, the market may have already moved 50%.
Volatility Market Trap: In volatile markets, moving averages frequently issue false signals, leading to repeated slaps in the face.
Manipulators Fishing: Manipulators can temporarily raise prices through capital advantages, creating a golden cross signal in moving averages to deceive retail investors into taking over.
Backtesting Data
Backtesting the Bitcoin market from 2020 to 2023 shows: Simply using MA5 and MA10 crossover strategies has a win rate of only 42%. After deducting fees, the actual loss is 18%—the so-called 'moving average guidance' is more often a tool for manipulators to lead retail investors into chasing peaks and troughs.
VI. Violent Coin Hoarding: What seems like a stable high selling and low buying is actually a high-frequency loss trap.
Mythical Logic
'Familiar coins at low prices, setting buy-sell price differences for repeated operations'—a strategy praised by many 'short-term experts' as 'holding coins + cyclical trading'.
Truth Bomb
Price Difference Setting Trap: The '10% price difference' you set may not keep up with market fluctuations, resulting in either not being able to buy or sell.
Fees Erosion: The transaction fees from high-frequency trading can severely erode profits, especially with small funds.
Imbalanced Mindset: When the coin price breaks through the set range, it is easy to lose emotional control and chase up or down.
Typical Case
An investor set a $200 price difference within the $1500-2000 range for ETH, but when ETH suddenly broke through $2000, the investor chased and bought at $2300, and then ETH corrected to $1800, not only losing previous profits but also incurring a loss of 15%—the so-called 'violent coin hoarding' often turns into 'violent losses'.
VII. ICO Compound Interest Method: What seems like a beautiful compound interest myth is actually an accelerator for zeroing out.
Mythical Logic
'New coins rise 3-5 times and then sell, profits keep rolling'—a 'compound interest secret' boasted by many early investors.
Truth Bomb
New Coin Zeroing Rate: 99% of new coins zero out within six months of issuance; so-called '3-5 times increase' may just be the manipulators pulling up to sell off.
Switching Timing Trap: When you sell Coin A to buy Coin B, Coin A may continue to rise while Coin B starts to plummet.
Compound Interest Illusion: Even if you are lucky enough to catch a new coin that rises 10 times, it is easy to greedily buy the next zeroing coin when switching.
Data Statistics
In the 2021 bull market, among investors participating in new coin investments, 92% lost over 50% within 3 months, and 78% ultimately saw their assets reduced to zero—the so-called 'ICO Compound Interest Method' is essentially a 'Rapid Zeroing Method'.
VIII. Cyclical Bands: What seems like smart high selling and low buying is actually the ATM of the manipulators
Mythical Logic
'Play with highly volatile coins, add positions when they drop, and sell when they rise'—a 'cyclical profit-making' strategy praised by many 'cyclical experts'.
Truth Bomb
Volatility Trap: Coins with high volatility are often manipulated coins, with price fluctuations entirely controlled by manipulators; what is called 'cyclical trading' is merely the rhythm of the manipulators harvesting.
Adding Positions Trap: When you keep adding positions during a downturn, you may fall right into the manipulators' trap, ultimately becoming deeply trapped.
Profit-Taking Trap: When the coin price rises, greed may delay your profit-taking, ultimately leading to a loss of profits or even losses.
Practical Cases
In 2023, a certain MEME coin fluctuated between $0.1 and $0.5; an investor repeatedly traded within this range, initially earning 30%, but when the price suddenly surged to $1, greed led the investor to miss their profit-taking opportunity, and the price subsequently plummeted to $0.01, leading to a final loss of 90%—the so-called 'cyclical bands' ultimately turned into 'cyclical catastrophic losses'.
IX. Small Coin Violence: What seems like low cost and high return is actually a graveyard for junk coins.
Mythical Logic
'Invest 10% of 10,000 in coins under 3 yuan, don’t sell until it increases 3-5 times'—a strategy seen as 'small investment for big returns' by many beginners.
Truth Bomb
Low Price Trap: Tokens under 3 yuan are mostly worthless junk coins; low prices don't mean cheapness, but rather lack of value.
Liquidity Trap: When you want to sell, you may find there are no buyers, especially in a bear market.
Reinvestment Trap: Even if you are lucky enough to double your investment, reinvesting in another small coin will likely lead you to a zeroing coin.
Brutal Reality
In the 2022 bear market, an investor bought 10 coins under 3 yuan for 10,000 yuan; 8 of them zeroed out within 3 months, while the remaining 2 peaked at 2 times. Ultimately, the total assets turned into 12,000 yuan—after deducting fees, the actual profit was less than 10%, but they bore 90% of the zeroing risk.
X. The Truth of Survival in the Crypto World: There are no guaranteed profits, only risk control
(1) Give up the fantasy of 'guaranteed profits'.
The essence of the crypto world is a risk market; any strategy claiming 'guaranteed profits' is a scam. The real way to survive is:
Trade with spare money, do not borrow or leverage.
Diversify investments, do not put all your eggs in one basket.
Learn fundamental analysis, do not blindly follow trends.
(2) Build your own trading system.
Clarify your risk tolerance.
Establish strict profit-taking and stop-loss rules.
Continuously learn and review, improving trading strategies.
(3) Remember these three phrases.
When everyone says 'guaranteed profits', that is when the risk is the highest.
There is nothing new in the crypto world; history will repeat itself but will not simply repeat.
Surviving is more important than making quick profits; preserving capital is the only chance.
Final Reminder
There has never been a 'guaranteed profit' god operation in the crypto world. Those 'earn 10 times by lying down' strategies are either stories of survivor bias or bait thrown out by manipulators. To survive long-term in the crypto world, you need to establish correct investment concepts and risk control capabilities, not to search for 'god operations'. Remember: In the crypto world, respecting the market and maintaining rationality is the only way to 'guaranteed profits'.
