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Technical Analysis
In the last week (May 24–26, 2025), XRP traded within a sideways range with a slight downward bias. The price traded around $2.35 on May 24 (down from about $2.40 mid-week), with a key support level holding near $2.30. It was noted that the price failed to rise above resistance around $2.40 despite previous attempts.
• Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a value of ~48 (neutral) on the hourly timeframe, and the MACD indicator leans negative (MACD value ≈−0.007, slight sell signal). Meanwhile, the ADX indicator (~19.7) signals a lack of trend clarity.
• Moving Averages: The moving averages on the (50 and 100 and 200-hour) timeframe range around $2.37–$2.38, which is above the current price (~$2.35), indicating short-term downward pressure.
• Support and Resistance: Key support and resistance areas have been identified; resistances at ~ $2.36 and $2.40 (previous peak levels), and the most important support around $2.30. As CoinDesk's analysis indicated, breaking the $2.345 level was marked by heavy selling and indicated a potential collapse towards ~ $2.00 if the price fails to hold above $2.30.
• Candle Models: A bearish pattern ('Head and Shoulders') formed on the short-term chart, after the price rose to ~ $2.411 followed by a break at ~ $2.330. This pattern adds high selling volumes near the previous resistance and suggests the potential continuation of the downward trend.
Suggested Entry and Exit Areas: For day trading, buying XRP near the support level (~$2.30) and selling at resistance (~$2.35–$2.40) can be considered. If the price collapses below ~ $2.30, short positions may become viable with targets around $2.00 again. Supported by typical short-term expectations, for instance, a model on CoinCodex predicts the price reaching ~ $2.35 on May 25, then decreasing to ~ $2.11 on May 26, supporting a selling scenario during mid-week.
Economic Analysis
Global Situation: The global economic and political climate remains volatile. In Europe, for example, accounts from the European Central Bank indicated a significant decrease in inflation, almost closing the 'inflation shock'. The European Central Bank has recently cut interest rates several times (the latest in April) and warned of the impact of U.S. tariffs on European growth. This means a flexible monetary environment and relative support for the markets, with warnings of future inflationary risks due to trade wars. On the political side, countries like Germany have witnessed the formation of a new government focusing on European stability and enhancing trade while negotiating with the U.S. on trade policies, while elections in Singapore are expected to result in continuity in trade openness and prudent policies. Upcoming international elections (such as Poland's presidency) may introduce some volatility, but without an immediate impact on global financial markets. Overall, CoinDesk highlights that 'geopolitical tensions and trade disputes amplify volatility in cryptocurrency markets,' meaning that global events can lead to sudden fluctuations in the price of XRP and its peers.
U.S. Data: Recent economic data in the United States showed signs of relative slowdown: According to a CBS News report, the U.S. GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 (the worst performance since 2022). Analysts link this weakness partially to the anticipated Trump tariffs (announced on April 2) that prompted companies to accelerate their imports ahead of implementation. The unemployment rate remained nearly at 4.2% in April 2025, and annual inflation was around 2.3% (the lowest rate in several years). In light of these figures, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates stable (4.25%-4.50%) in its latest meeting, indicating that 'inflation and unemployment risks have increased.' This means that monetary policy remains cautious: current expectations indicate the possibility of three upcoming rate cuts during 2025 (the first likely in July), which may boost risk sentiment among investors in the markets (including the cryptocurrency market). According to analysts' estimates, the Fed meeting in mid-June is a pivotal event; if the tone shifts towards easing (rate cuts), 'this move could revive the performance of smaller digital currencies (like XRP) as investors seek higher returns.' Other expected May data (such as unemployment or monthly inflation reports) are not expected to be released until early June, so current focus remains on general economic indicators and the broader market condition.
Impact on XRP: These economic factors create opposing pressures on XRP. On one hand, poor economic performance means investors are cautious about high-risk assets and may move to liquidity (potential selling pressure on cryptocurrencies). For example, a weak U.S. economy increases the likelihood that XRP will follow a downward pattern as seen in related markets. On the other hand, moderate inflation and an accommodative monetary policy (or expected to be so) may alleviate this pressure and support a greater risk appetite. Realistically, CoinDesk reported that currencies like 'Bitcoin' maintained their gains (even a slight decline) after the Federal Reserve's recent decision, suggesting that current monetary policy movements may be positively received by financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
Daily Recommendations and Trend Probabilities
• May 25, 2025: We expect sideways movement with a slight upward bias. Potential buy entry near support ~$2.30, targeting resistance levels near ~$2.35. A stop-loss can be placed below ~$2.30. (Today's price stability may pave the way for choosing trades based on subsequent breakouts.)
• May 26, 2025: Expectations lean towards a downward trend. Short entry at ~$2.35, targeting a drop towards ~$2.11. The ~$2.30 level remains critical; breaking it would support the continuation of the decline. Take profit/stop loss should be placed above ~$2.36.
• May 27, 2025: Continuation of the downward scenario. Short around ~$2.30, with a target drop around ~$2.04. (With the condition to exit near 2.04 to confirm taking profits before any potential rebound.)
Considering these recommendations, we note that the CoinCodex model predicts an overall decrease of ~9% by late June, which aligns with the aforementioned selling trend. Overall, the described technical and economic factors confirm a relatively downward bias in the near term. Based on this, an approximate probability of 60% for XRP's continued decline during this week against ~40% for a bullish rebound can be estimated. It should be noted that these ratios are not fully guaranteed but are estimates based on current indicators. We always advise taking risk management measures (such as stop-loss orders) and monitoring market developments in real-time, as economic and political conditions can change rapidly and affect prices.
Sources: We relied on recent technical and economic data and specialized platforms (Investing.com, Binance, CoinDesk, CoinCodex, Reuters, and others) to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the information. The results and opinions presented here are for informational purposes and are not financial advice, and they should be verified from independent sources before making any trading decision.
