1️⃣ Trump ignites a global risk-averse wave
Just this week, Trump announced a 50% tariff on EU goods, reviving the trade tensions led by the United States. This move shook global financial markets, triggering a rise in risk-averse sentiment, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, was also affected, experiencing significant sell-offs.
2️⃣ Technical Structure: Price trapped in the key FVG layer
Currently, Bitcoin is compressed between two key fair value gaps (FVG): the upper $109K–$110K area is a strong resistance zone, while the lower $106K–$107K is a potential liquidity pool. Once breached, there will be a risk of downward probing, and once broken through, bulls may welcome a counterattack window.
3️⃣ Emotional cold and hot differentiation: institutions enter, retail investors watch
Google Trends shows: Currently, retail interest in Bitcoin is only half of the peak during the 2024 bull market, while 204 institutions have heavily invested. This 'low enthusiasm rise' is an important signal for the healthy progression of the bull market.
Two Possible Paths in the Long-Short Game:
Breakthrough Path:
If the bulls reclaim the FVG above $109K, the price is expected to quickly hit the resistance zone at $112K, entering a broader supply vacuum zone and triggering a technical surge.
Retracement Path:
If the price falls below $107K, the liquidity pool below $106K–$104K will be triggered, and a short-term accelerated downward probing may occur, testing the untouched demand zone.
