Evening Outlook
1. BTC
Core Signals
Technical bullish dominance
Key resistance breakthrough: Price strongly breaks through the psychological barrier of $109,000, forming an upward channel, short-term bullish trend established.
Market Scenarios
Scenario 1: Continuation of Uptrend
Trigger Condition: Price stabilizes above $109,500
-Target Path:
First Target: $110,000-$110,500
Breakthrough Target: $112,000-$113,000
Scenario 2: Technical Pullback
Trigger Condition: Price falls below $109,000
Support Validation:
Strong Support 1: $108,200-$108,500
Strong Support 2: $107,500-$107,800
Scenario 3: Extreme Volatility
Black Swan Event: U.S. SEC suddenly regulates stablecoins, Mt.Gox compensation process unexpectedly starts.
Impact Range: Price may flash crash to $105,000 or surge to $115,000.
Operational Strategy
1. Bullish Strategy
Current Price Buying: $109,300-$109,500 light position long, stop loss at $108,800, target $110,500-$112,000.
Pullback Adding Position: If it retraces to $108,500, add long position, stop loss at $107,800, same target as above.
2. Bearish Strategy
Resistance Testing for Short: Open short in the range of $110,000-$110,200, stop loss at $111,000, target $109,000-$109,500.
