$BTC $1B+ Open Interest ramp up in 3 hours during a weekend. | DaanCrypto on Binance Square

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$BTC $1B+ Open Interest ramp up in 3 hours during a weekend.
BTC has been strong lately but be careful when a lot of leverage is added during weekends.

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Quick Thoughts on the remainder of this Year/Cycle 👇 Obviously I'll let the charts, trends and new information lead the way as we go and ideas can change. Just think the below makes sense as we speak. My base case is a slowdown in Summer and a choppy environment for most markets. This does not mean we can't go higher. I just don't think we'll get the real craziness & blow off top or whatever until later in the year/cycle. This would likely be paired with some correction and higher low on stocks. Trump clearly isn't willing to support markets at this level and his tone changed from when $SPX traded ~5000. He can just talk the markets up and down depending on where they trade. I also think the Fed isn't likely to do anything to support the markets until later in Q3/Q4. Maybe we look through it all anyways and just ignore the noise but it's safe to assume that at some point markets get spooked again by something and the Fed doesn't step in before that happens. Possibly by then, something also has broken and we can start the money printing and QE stage which $BTC and crypto love so much. That should also help the overall risk on appetite towards alts. I do think we will see some narrative emerge during the Summer regardless of the market environment. That's something you should focus on as those plays can very well be some bangers for the rest of the cycle. In the past we had DeFi Summer, NFTs, Metaverse all the crazy runs have come around that time. Especially after BTC has had a big run the year(s) prior. Then Q3 we can start the fun and last stage of this cycle into EOY. And yes, I do still think the 4 year cycle has merit and is a decent guideline. Mainly because until now, it's the only thing that has proven to be true over all these years. I also think it matches up pretty well with the overall state of things macro wise. Although the latter is hard to predict.

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Quick Thoughts on the remainder of this Year/Cycle 👇 Obviously I'll let the charts, trends and new information lead the way as we go and ideas can change. Just think the below makes sense as we speak. My base case is a slowdown in Summer and a choppy environment for most markets. This does not mean we can't go higher. I just don't think we'll get the real craziness & blow off top or whatever until later in the year/cycle. This would likely be paired with some correction and higher low on stocks. Trump clearly isn't willing to support markets at this level and his tone changed from when $SPX traded ~5000. He can just talk the markets up and down depending on where they trade. I also think the Fed isn't likely to do anything to support the markets later in Q3/Q4. Maybe we look through it all anyways and just ignore the noise but it's safe to assume that at some point markets get spooked again by something and the Fed doesn't step in before that happens. Possibly by then, something also has broken and we can start the money printing and QE stage which $BTC and crypto love so much. That should also help the overall risk on appetite towards alts. I do think we will see some narrative emerge during the Summer regardless of the market environment. That's something you should focus on as those plays can very well be some bangers for the rest of the cycle. In the past we had DeFi Summer, NFTs, Metaverse all the crazy runs have come around that time. Especially after BTC has had a big run the year(s) prior. Then Q3 we can start the fun and last stage of this cycle into EOY. And yes, I do still think the 4 year cycle has merit and is a decent guideline. Mainly because until now, it's the only thing that has proven to be true over all these years. I also think it matches up pretty well with the overall state of things macro wise. Although the latter is hard to predict.

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While $BTC made new highs, we can see how the $TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap is still nowhere close. Even though it has bounced and taken back some previous losses, it's still 30%+ away from reaching those all time highs (which are still from 2021). The key horizontal level on the chart is what needs to be broken for alts to play some catch up with BTC. But overall, the BTC trend is just much stronger as it has been all cycle.

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While $BTC made new highs, we can see how the $TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap is still nowhere close. Even though it has bounced and taken back some previous losses, it's still 30%+ away from reaching those all time highs (which are still from 2021). The key horizontal level on the chart is what needs to be broken for alts to play some catch up with BTC. But overall, the BTC trend is just much stronger as it has been all cycle.

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It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction. We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle. If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible. These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money. Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.

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下周将会有大事发生👇 整周： - 美联储官员发表讲话周一： - 美国市场休市周三： - 联邦公开市场委员会会

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