Yesterday's market truly confirmed the saying, 'The market is in Trump's mouth.' Since Trump took office, the entire global financial market has fluctuated greatly based on his words. Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped below 110,000 and fluctuated around 107,000 under Trump's influence, while altcoins generally fell by 10%.
I believe the trend has not changed yet. The situation of more ups than downs may continue for some time. Firstly, the declines are limited and lack continuity; there has been no situation of continuous drop leading to panic selling, indicating that the upward trend has not been broken.
Secondly, altcoin representatives like Ethereum, SOL, and Dogecoin had limited declines, and subsequently showed signs of recovering lost prices, indicating that their foundations are still stable. It is highly likely they will rise again. If the trend is broken, what you will see is a panic sell-off, rather than a rebound after a spike. Furthermore, the tariff issue can only be considered a negative factor, and the whales are just cooperating with the news to drive the market down.
When can we determine that the trend has ended?
The bull market cycle hasn't ended; Trump is supposed to create big waves during his term, and he has that capability. The drop in the first half of the year was merely to collect chips at a lower price, which can be seen from the pure business logic in Trump's books.
As always, Trump has the ability to accelerate cycles; he has the capability without changing the cycle.
Every cycle is the same; without altcoins surging to attract retail investors, the market won't end. Junk altcoins are everywhere.
In 2017, it was all about thousand-fold coins; in 2021, it was about hundred-fold coins; in 2025, quality altcoins might multiply by 10-20 times, while junk altcoins might multiply by 3-5 times. Only then should we consider if the bull market has ended. Right now, altcoins are hardly moving and are still influenced by Trump, so we must continue to patiently wait for the cyclical nature of altcoins!
BTC started from above 103,000, and with every step up, there were new positive stimuli. A trade agreement between China and the US pushed it to around 105,800. Although the US's credit rating was downgraded, the US Treasury Secretary made a statement to stabilize the situation. Then, with the stablecoin legislation and regulatory easing, even though the 20-year Treasury auction caused a drop in US stocks, BTC rose to a new high against the trend.
This is thanks to BTC's positioning beyond sovereignty; BTC is experiencing 'structural growth' under asset reallocation. However, positive factors are still only emotional boosts. The stablecoin legislation has brought in large funds, but not quickly enough to support sustained inflows. Speculation on interest rate cuts hasn't even begun.
Then yesterday, Trump did this, and the sentiment quickly diminished. Altcoins, which are very sensitive to liquidity, will become more cautious. In other words, most altcoin whales are now afraid to pump the market, but BTC will definitely rebound. However, it may just be a rebound. As mentioned earlier, without speculation on interest rate cuts, hot money is hesitant to rush in; only listed companies are willing to take risks, and their target is only BTC, not altcoins.
ETH has resistance at 2700-2800, and SOL at 185-188. We need to see if they have favorable narratives to stimulate prices; otherwise, they still won't catch up with Bitcoin and won't break out.
This weekend and next Monday, US markets will be closed, meaning there may be limited liquidity for three consecutive days. Next week, there is a Bitcoin conference, coinciding with the end of the month. Trump's tariffs have now added uncertainty. Current positions can be held, but stop-loss orders should be placed, whether for spot trading or derivatives. No new positions should be taken until at least after US markets reopen.
Brothers, come to the chat room quickly to gather: