What do you think about the cryptocurrency bull market in 2025?
My judgment on the bull market is that the traditional four-year bull-bear cycle is no longer in place, replaced by a super slow bull market with a 10-year cycle.
1. Two major players, MicroStrategy and ETFs, collectively hold 1 million Bitcoins. After dropping from 110,000 to over 70,000, they still have 95% of their BTC, indicating a clear intention to hold long-term as a hedge against inflation. This is the main reason why we won't see a drop below 70,000 in the short term.
2. All technical indicators support a 50% drop in BTC; altcoins are at their ankles, yet BTC remains stable. If it doesn't drop, it has to rise; the bull market is not over.
3. The CEO of BlackRock stated that the next 10 years will be a period of net adoption for Bitcoin. Institutional positions in Bitcoin are extremely low, averaging below 1%, and they are slowly building positions at lower prices, which aligns with the inference that the bull market is still ongoing.
4. This time, BTC's bull market has risen less, and during corrections, it naturally drops less. This is the type of Bitcoin that Wall Street hopes to see, resembling a slow bull market like the US stock market.
5. Bitcoin should reach 200,000-250,000 this year or next year.
6. The altcoin bull market is essentially driven purely by capital. Investors profit from Bitcoin, and after selling it at high prices, the capital has nowhere to go but into altcoins and new coins with low upward pressure. However, this time Bitcoin rose to 110,000, and profits were less than before, leading to less capital flowing into altcoins, resulting in a brief surge last year before entering a bear market.
7. It can be foreseen that when Bitcoin rises to 150,000-200,000, capital will continue to flow into altcoins after taking profits at high levels, driving altcoins to form the high-multiple bull markets of the past.
